Heisman Trophy Odds: Bet Dante Moore Now After Week 8 Movement
Every single week of this college football season seems to confirm that not only is this one of the weaker Heisman Trophy odds races in recent memory, but that there won't be a clear winner anytime soon.
There's been a change atop the board more than a half dozen times since Week 0, and following Week 8, there's a new Heisman Trophy odds favorite. Miami's Carson Beck had an all-time ugly performance in a loss to Louisville, which in turn has pushed Indiana's Fernando Mendoza to the new top spot.
Mendoza, Alabama's Ty Simpson, and Ohio State's Julian Sayin now all have odds shorter than +500, but the best Heisman bet for your college football picks might just be former favorite Dante Moore.
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🦆 Bet Dante Moore for Heisman now
The rationale for betting on Moore now is that his odds are disproportionately long at our best college football betting sites vs. the other obvious Heisman contenders. The Ducks' star QB is +2000, meaning a $10 bet pays a $200 profit if he wins vs. a $10 bet on Mendoza, Simpson, and Sayin paying a less than $50 profit.
The reason is obvious: Moore's Ducks lost to Mendoza's Hoosiers in Week 7, but one game does not define a Heisman race. I mean, on Sept. 27, after a three TD outing in a road win against No. 3 Penn State, Moore was the Heisman Trophy odds favorite at +600. Less than a month later, James Franklin isn't even the Nittany Lions' head coach, and Moore's odds have more than tripled.
We've seen the jerk reaction with Mendoza, too. When the Cal transfer threw for five TDs in a 63-10 win over a then No. 9 Illinois on Sept. 20, he shot to the top of the Heisman board. The following week, the Hoosiers barely beat Iowa, and his odds slipped to +1600 (hope you bet him then).
Point being, you don't win the Heisman seven games into the season, and for my money, this is still an open race between five QBs Mendoza, Simpson, Sayin, Reed, and Moore) with five regular-season games left. It doesn't hurt that Moore just put up the highest QBR in the country in Week 8 (99.1) and has the advanced metrics on his side as the QB with the best mix of efficiency and aggressiveness.
Bet Moore now for what's to come from the Oregon star, before these odds shorten below +1000 once again. He might not win the Heisman, but these odds shouldn't be quadruple the odds of the three biggest favorites.
🆚 Fernando Mendoza vs. Ty Simpson vs. Julian Sayin vs. Dante Moore
Stat projection based on 12 regular season games
| Stat | Fernando Mendoza | Ty Simpson | Julian Sayin | Dante Moore |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total TDs | 39 | 34 | 33 | 33 |
| QBR | 87.7 | 82.6 | 88.4 | 75.8 |
| Passing yards | 3,009 | 3,310 | 3,209 | 2,890 |
| Rushing yards | 259 | 113 | 29 | 247 |
| Adjusted completion rate | 79.5% | 79.1% | 85.5% | 79.7% |
| Big-time throws (big-time throw rate) | 10 (3.1%) | 24 (6%) | 17 (5%) | 27 (8.1%) |
| Turnover-worthy plays (turnover-worthy play rate) | 5 (1.4%) | 9 (1.9%) | 5 (1.4%) | 7 (1.8%) |
🚨 Heisman Trophy odds movement after Week 8
- After an upset loss on Friday night to Louisville in which he threw four interceptions, Miami's Carson Beck slid from the Heisman Trophy odds favorite at +360 to +6000
- The new Heisman Trophy odds favorite following a four-TD performance against Michigan State, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, saw his odds shorten from +500 to +340
- As Alabama's Ty Simpson continues to stack impressive performances and build NFL draft buzz, his Heisman Trophy odds shortened from +380 to +350 after beating Tennessee
- Thanks to his most productive game of his young career, Ohio State's Julian Sayin saw his Heisman odds cut from +1800 to +450
- A quartet of star QBs had their Heisman odds shorten: Texas A&M's Marcel Reed (+2000 to +1000), Georgia's Gunner Stockton (+3000 to +1300), Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia (+5500 to +1400), and Oregon's Dante Moore (+3000 to +2000)
- Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love (+5500 to 3000) and Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith (+1800 to +3500) remain the two non-QBs with the shortest Heisman Trophy odds
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