Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction & Odds: SEC Championship Betting Preview
The last time these two programs played, Kirby Smart took another L at the hands of the program built by his mentor, but my Georgia vs. Alabama prediction sees the Bulldogs biting back against the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship.
No. 3 Georgia is a 2.5-point betting favorite against No. 9 Alabama for Saturday's SEC Championship from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (4 p.m. ET, ABC), and while my college football conference championship predictions project a similar score to the regular season matchup, I have it going the other way this time around.
Georgia vs. Alabama predictions: SEC Championship
💵 Best Georgia vs. Alabama bets
Georgia vs. Alabama best bet & score prediction
See all of our experts' college football picks for every conference championship game.
Georgia -2.5 (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite having two national championships and three SEC Championships on his resume, Smart is just 1-7 as Georgia's head coach against Alabama. However, he's poised to finally get his second W against the team he spent nearly a decade calling the defense for under Nick Saban.
With Saban gone, Kalen DeBoer has a 2-0 record against Georgia as Alabama's head coach, but since beating the Bulldogs in September, the Crimson Tide have been trending in the wrong direction. The Tide are just 1-2-1 ATS in SEC play since Oct. 25 and averaged 24.2 PPG in those four conference games - all four matchups came against teams ranked top 30 in defensive SP+.
Meanwhile, Georgia's defense has come to life down the stretch behind the play of potential All-American CJ Allen. The Bulldogs are No. 8 in defensive SP+ and have allowed more than 21 points to an opponent just once since losing to Alabama. With the Crimson Tide's lack of run game and reliance on QB Ty Simpson to bail them out, Smart's defense should be able to lock in on stopping the pass to limit Alabama's scoring.
Stock up on Nate Frazier
Two things are working strongly in Georgia's offense's favor entering this matchup. First is the emergence of sophomore running back Nate Frazier as a bell cow. After a lackluster start to the year, Frazier has finally begun living up to preseason expectations with him and Gunner Stockton helping Georgia rank No. 11 in EPA per rush.
The other major factor benefiting the Bulldogs is that Alabama will be without one of its best defenders, LT Overton. Losing an NFL-caliber defensive lineman ahead of playing a run-first offense led by NFL-caliber offensive tackles in Monroe Freeling and Earnest Greene III is a rough blow for DeBoer.
With Alabama's offense being one-dimensional and its defense being down one of its most important pieces, Georgia is in better shape for this rematch than it was for the September loss. If the Bulldogs cover the spread for the sixth time in eight games, a $10 bet pays an $8.85 profit.
Score prediction: Georgia 24, Alabama 20
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Georgia vs. Alabama matchup to watch
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Nate Frazier vs. Alabama front seven
Georgia has been a running back factory for years, and Frazier is starting to play like the next Bulldog back heading to the NFL. The sophomore got off to an inconsistent start to the season, but has come to life as a key cog in Mike Bobo's offense as of late.
After carrying the ball 10 or fewer times in three of his first four Power Four games this season, Frazier has averaged 14.6 carries for 95.6 rushing yards per game in his last five games against P4 opponents. A bowling ball of a runner, he's averaging 3.52 rushing yards after contact per carry and has ripped off 10 runs of 10-plus yards in his last three P4 games.
In the first matchup against Alabama, Frazier had just four carries for 30 yards, but this time around, he should see a major uptick in work as his breakout continues. If Frazier goes Over 60.5 rushing yards for the fourth straight time against a P4 team, a $10 bet pays an $8.85 profit.
And if you're looking to back a TD scorer in the SEC Championship, our Mike Spector has you covered with his college football best bets.
Best prop bet: Nate Frazier Over 60.5 rushing yards (-113 via Caesars)
Georgia vs. Alabama odds
See live college football odds for every conference championship game.
Georgia vs. Alabama betting trends
| Georgia | Statistic | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | W-L record | 10-2 |
| 5-6-1 | ATS record | 7-3-2 |
| 4-7-1 | O/U record | 4-8 |
| 5.8 | Yards per play | 5.8 |
| 4.9 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9 |
| -0.1 | Turnover margin | +0.7 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| W, 16-9 vs. Georgia Tech | Previous result | W, 27-20 vs. Auburn |
Georgia vs. Alabama weather
This game will be played indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, so the weather won't be a factor for Georgia vs. Alabama in Saturday's SEC Championship.
How to watch Georgia vs. Alabama: SEC Championship
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
- Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- TV: ABC
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