Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction & Opening Odds for SEC Championship
For the fourth time since 2018, the SEC Championship will feature the conference's two biggest powers, and my Georgia vs. Alabama prediction has Kirby Smart's Bulldogs getting payback from their September loss to the Crimson Tide.
No. 4 Georgia heads to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta as 2.5-point betting favorite for Saturday's SEC Championship at 4 p.m. ET (ABC) against No. 10 Alabama. My early picks and college football conference championship predictions expect Georgia to take home its second straight SEC Championship and earn a bye in the College Football Playoff.
Early Georgia vs. Alabama prediction & betting preview
Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for every conference championship.
Georgia -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even in seasons where it looks like another program could emerge from the conference where it just means more, it's once again going to be Alabama or Georgia at the top of the SEC heading into the CFP. These two programs have accounted for 10 of the last 11 conference championships, but this will be Kalen DeBoer's first time coaching for an SEC title.
While DeBoer has found serious success at times this season with the Tide, thanks to the emergence of QB Ty Simpson, Alabama has dwindled down the stretch. The Crimson Tide are just 2-2-1 ATS since Week 9, with their offense slipping to No. 22 in SP+ and No. 98 in EPA per rush.
Alabama's inability to consistently run the ball has allowed opponents to focus on stopping Simpson and this passing attack, with the Crimson Tide's last three SEC opponents holding them to just 22.6 PPG. Smart will have his defense foaming at the mouth, especially with it hitting its stride in the second half of the season. The Bulldogs are No. 8 in defensive SP+ and haven't given up more than 21 points in five straight games.
With Gunner Stockton and Nate Frazier leading Georgia's rushing attack, it should do enough against a Bama defense ranked No. 44 in EPA per rush to pull away. If the Bulldogs cover (52.38% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
💡 More college football predictions
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for every conference championship.
Live Georgia vs. Alabama odds: SEC Championship
See the latest college football odds for every conference championship game.
Georgia vs. Alabama opening odds
- Moneyline: Georgia -125 | Alabama +105
- Spread: Georgia -1.5 (-110) | Alabama +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Georgia vs. Alabama line movement
With Alabama winning the regular-season matchup against Georgia, 24-21, the Bulldogs only opened as 1.5-point betting favorites at our best college football betting sites. However, with 56% of early bettors backing Smart's team to get revenge, the line has shifted further in Georgia's direction. For those wanting to back the Bulldogs, now is the time to do it ... I'm weary of taking them if they're favored by anymore than 2.5 points.
The game total hasn't seen any movement thus far, and with 60% of bettors on the Over early, I'd expect it to jump up to closer to 49.5 by Saturday. So those wanting to bet the Under should hold off and wait until this game total moves up a point or two.
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Georgia vs. Alabama trends & betting notes
- After starting the season 0-3-1 ATS, Georgia is 5-3 ATS since its loss to Alabama
- Alabama started the season 5-1-1 ATS but is 2-2-1 since
- Georgia is 7-4-1 betting the Under this season, including hitting the Under in four of its last five
- Alabama is one of the best Under teams in the country, hitting it in eight of its last nine
How to watch Georgia vs. Alabama
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
- Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- TV: ABC
Early conference championship predictions
- Early Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State prediction: Conference USA Championship
- Early Troy vs. James Madison prediction: Sun Belt Championship
- Early North Texas vs. Tulane prediction: American Conference Championship
- Early UNLV vs. Boise State prediction: Mountain West Championship
- Early BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction: Big 12 Championship
- Early Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan prediction: MAC Championship
- Early Duke vs. Virginia prediction: ACC Championship
- Early Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: SEC Championship
- Early Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction: Big Ten Championship (coming soon)
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