Florida vs. Ole Miss Prediction & Opening Odds for College Football Week 12
With the College Football Playoff and SEC Championship races heating up, I'm breaking down my Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction for Week 12 by looking at the opening odds for this conference clash on Saturday, which kicks off at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss.
No. 6 Ole Miss is a 16.5-point betting favorite, and with just two games left on its schedule, the Rebs look like a playoff lock. But I see value in the underdog Gators as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.
🏈 Early Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction & betting preview
Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for Week 12.
🐊 Florida +16.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Following last week’s dispiriting loss to Kentucky, who believes in Florida anymore? After this spread opened at 13.5, Ole Miss has been bet to a 16.5-point favorite - just under the key number of 17. As a 9-1 SEC team, No. 6 Ole Miss looks great to the public, but some meaningful data suggest the Rebels are overrated. Ole Miss ranks 11th in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings and 12th in the FPI.
The inverse is true for Florida. The unranked Gators (3-6) still rank 32nd in Sagarin’s rankings and 35th in the FPI. Their backs are officially against the wall for bowl eligibility. I’m not sure what motivation this locker room has left, which could be a problem on Saturday, but the numbers all suggest this is a sell high spot for Ole Miss – and a decent buy-low spot for Florida.
It sounds like quarterback DJ Lagway, who got benched against Kentucky last week, should remain the starter for the Gators. Lagway’s issue has been interceptions, but Ole Miss doesn’t generate many of them. The Rebs rank 93rd in interceptions per game (0.6) and have just two picks over the last five games. If Lagway can avoid turnovers, the Gators should cover +16.5 with the best odds of -108 at DraftKings returning a $9.26 profit on a $10 bet.
💡 More Week 12 predictions
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for Week 12.
📊 Live Florida vs. Ole Miss odds: Week 12
See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 12.
🔢 Florida vs. Ole Miss opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida +550 | Ole Miss -800
- Spread: Florida +13.5 (-110) | Ole Miss -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)
↔️ Florida vs. Ole Miss line movement
The spread for this game opened at 13.5, and early money has poured in on Ole Miss, moving the spread out to 16.5. While we could cross the key number of 17 because the public doesn’t want to buy this Florida team, I’d much rather get the 16.5 at -108 and not miss out on a startlingly massive spread for an SEC game.
The total opened at 52.5 and is up to 53.5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number bounce around a bit, but it shouldn't move by more than a point or two. With Lagway announced as the starter, there isn’t enough news that could dramatically move this number in advance of Saturday’s action.
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📈 Florida vs. Ole Miss trends & betting notes
- Florida is a dreadful 3-6 against the spread this season, losing by an average margin of -2 and failing to cover by an average margin of -7.2
- Ole Miss is a strong 21-17-2 against the spread at home under head coach Lane Kiffin and is 27-22-4 as a favorite over that span
- Florida is a profitable 6-3 to the Under this season, although the Gators are only 3-3 to the Under in conference play
- Ole Miss is a breakeven 5-5 to the Under this season but has posted a 43-29 record to the Under since Lane Kiffin arrived in 2020
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📺 How to watch Florida vs. Ole Miss
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Miss.)
- TV: ESPN
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