Florida State vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds & Picks: Seminoles, Cavaliers to Run Wild
Two programs that have bounced back early this season after struggling last year meet on Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN), and my Florida State vs. Virginia prediction expects both run games to thrive at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va., as part of my college football picks.
The Seminoles enter as a 7-point betting favorite on the road. While my college football predictions for Week 5 lean toward the Cavaliers, I'm more confident backing the Over - assuming the weather report is correct and the rain holds off.
🏈 Florida State vs. Virginia prediction to win
College football expert odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Florida State (-250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Virginia +7 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 60 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Florida State vs. Virginia best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 60 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This should be a fun one under the Friday night lights, with Virginia being for Over lovers so far this season. While the Cavs have struggled throughout Tony Elliott's tenure as head coach, a top 30 transfer portal class that was ranked No. 2 in transfer production coming into the season has helped turn this team around, particularly on offense.
Led by transfers like QB Chandler Morris (North Texas), running backs J'Mari Taylor (NC Central) and Harrison Waylee (Wyoming), and wide receivers Cam Ross (James Madison) and Trell Harris (Kent State), UVA is 4-0 to the Over this year. Des Kitchings' unit is No. 20 in EPA per rush and No. 15 in third-down success.
Virginia's defense, on the other hand, remains an issue - it's ranked outside the top 70 in both EPA per pass and rush. So Florida State should have no issues scoring, with an offensive unit that's top 10 in EPA per rush and pass and led by QB Tommy Castellanos, plus a plethora of playmakers that have the Seminoles 3-0 betting the Over this season.
One thing to keep an eye on for this game is the weather. It's supposed to rain leading up to the game, but not during - a slick field could help these explosive run games. If these two can remain undefeated betting the Over, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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💰 Florida State vs. Virginia player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Tommy Castellanos Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
One of the most dynamic running QBs in the sport, Castellanos has looked like a prime Pat White in Gus Malzahn's offense this season. The former Boston College starter is top 25 in the country in missed tackles forced (8), 10-plus-yard runs (7), and rushing yards after contact per carry (3.62) among QBs.
Castellanos' ability as a runner is what makes the Seminoles' offense go, and while he's averaging just 46.3 rushing yards per game, a big reason why is that he hasn't had to do all that much. Castellanos played more snaps in Week 1 against Alabama (43), when he rushed for 78 yards on 16 carries, than he has in each of his last two games combined (40). In the wins over Kent State and East Texas A&M, he ran for a combined 61 yards on 11 carries.
With a regular workload against a Virginia defense that gave up over 200 rushing yards in its lone Power Four game this year, Castellanos should clear 54.5 yards with ease. If he does, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.
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📊 Florida State vs. Virginia odds: Week 5
Florida State vs. Virginia odds update live in real time.
📈 Florida State vs. Virginia opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida State -250 | Virginia +205
- Spread: Florida State -8 (-110) | Virginia +8 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)
🔍 Florida State vs. Virginia odds analysis
Despite Florida State having 68% of bettors backing it to cover the spread, the Seminoles have come down from an 8-point betting favorite to between -6.5 and -7 on the road against Virginia. While I'm taking a contrarian route and backing the Cavaliers to cover as a 7-point underdog, I wouldn't take them at anything lower than -6.5.
Meanwhile, the game total continues to rise, moving from 57.5 to as high as 60.5. The Over is still in play at 60.5, but with only 53% of bettors on the Over, it could be worth waiting to bet this until closer to kickoff to see if it drops back down. Weather remains in play, too.
🔢 Florida State vs. Virginia key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Florida State (3-0) | Statistic (per game) | Virginia (3-1) |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0 | Points | 45.5 |
| 10.0 | Points allowed | 19.5 |
| 0.0 | Turnover margin | +0.5 |
| 265.7 | Passing yards | 313.0 |
| 363.0 | Rushing yards | 251.5 |
| 169.7 | Passing yards allowed | 213.3 |
| 78.3 | Rushing yards allowed | 100.3 |
| +4.7 | Net yards per play | +1.8 |
📺 Florida State vs. Virginia game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Scott Stadium (Charlottesville, Va.)
- How to watch: ESPN
❓ Florida State vs. Virginia FAQs
Who is favored to win Florida State vs. Virginia?
Florida State is a -250 moneyline favorite against the Cavaliers, implying a 71.43% probability they will win. Virginia is a +225 moneyline underdog against the Seminoles, implying a 30.77% probability they will win.
What is the spread for Florida State vs. Virginia?
Florida State is a 6.5-point betting favorite vs. Virginia after opening between -7.5 and -8. The Seminoles -122 odds imply a 54.95% probability they will cover.
What is the Over/Under for Florida State vs. Virginia?
The Over/Under for Florida State vs. Virginia is between 60 and 60.5 after opening at 57.5.
What are the best bets for Florida State vs. Virginia?
The best bets for Florida State vs. Virginia are Over 60 (-110) and Over 45.5 rushing yards for Tommy Castellanos (-114).
When is the Florida State vs. Virginia game?
The Florida State vs. Virginia game is Friday, Sept. 26, at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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