FIU vs. Missouri State Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 10 Betting Preview

Our college football predictions for Week 10 continue with my FIU vs. Missouri State prediction ahead of the matchup from Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Mo., on Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET (CBSSN).

Missouri State is anywhere from a 3.5 to 4-point betting favorite, but I’m looking to the total as one of my more confident college football picks.

📊 FIU vs. Missouri State odds: Week 10

See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 10.

✅ FIU vs. Missouri State expert picks

See our experts' college football picks for every Week 10 game.

🏈 FIU vs. Missouri State preview & score prediction

Both squads are profitable to the Under this year. But I am following the line movement and backing the contrarian Over as my most confident four-star expert pick for this game. The O/U has ticked up from an opening number of 50.5 to as high as 51.5 despite 57% of the early wagers backing the Under. 

Positive regression looming for Missouri State

Missouri State only produced 17 points in regulation in last week’s 24-17 overtime road victory against New Mexico State, but that was always going to be a defensive struggle. Neither team possessed an efficient enough running game to keep the chains moving for lengthy drives.

The Bears’ offensive ceiling was also low given that they averaged 0.3 points per play (96th in FBS) facing an Aggies defense that had allowed the 16th-fewest points per play (0.3).

Missouri State could have had more points early if not for two first-quarter interceptions deep in opponents’ territory. But it should see positive regression from a finishing drives standpoint when facing an FIU defense that ranked 94th in defensive stop rate (and allowed 2.47 points per drive) entering Week 9.

FIU should also keep up in the scoring after averaging 25.5 points per game over the last two weeks, despite settling for five field goals in the red zone and missing another in that two-game stretch.

I am backing the Over at DraftKings before the line inflates any further. Through its -110 odds that carry a 52.38% implied probability, a $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.

✅ Score prediction: Missouri State 31, FIU 24

🆚 Key matchup to watch

Shomari Lawrence vs. FIU’s defensive front

FIU allowed 45 points in its last game to a Kennesaw State team that had ranked 120th or worse in Offensive Success Rate and Finishing Drives. The Owls were wise to remain committed to the ground game, as the Panthers’ defensive strength was a secondary that ranked 51st or better in EPA Per Pass Allowed and 37th in Passing Success Rate allowed.

Missouri State’s Shomari Lawrence had a slow start to the year with a high of 50 rushing yards through the first three weeks. Since then, he has rushed for at least 63 yards in each of the last four games, and just turned in a season-high 21 carries for 97 yards. 

If a Kennesaw State offensive line that had ranked 11th in the conference in run blocking (per PFF) could pave the way for 214 rushing yards against FIU, Lawrence should be in for a big day as well.

FanDuel’s -114 odds at a 53.27% implied probability would net $8.77 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

✅ Best player prop bet: Shomari Lawrence Over 57.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 FIU vs. Missouri State betting trends

🌤️ FIU vs. Missouri State weather

There is a 70% chance of precipitation in Springfield on Wednesday, but it's likely to be early in the day. But that will clear out by night, leaving temperatures in the high 30s, with wind gusts up to 28 mph.

📺 How to watch FIU vs. Missouri State

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 29
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Robert W. Plaster Stadium (Springfield, Mo.)
• TV: CBSSN