East Carolina vs. Michigan Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Wolverines to Stifle Pirates
The Michigan Wolverines look to build toward a third straight College Football Playoff appearance, and it starts with hosting the East Carolina Pirates in Week 1 as we make our East Carolina vs. Michigan picks based on the best college football odds.
East Carolina went 8-5 last season - its highest win total since 2014 - in its first year in the AAC. In each of the past two seasons, the Pirates have finished with a .500 or better record in conference play for the first time since joining it. ECU closed out a very successful season, winning its first bowl game since 2013 by defeating Coastal Carolina 53-29 in the Birmingham Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines have suffered losses in their two CFP games, with a combined score of 85-56. However, they find comfort in their back-to-back victories against their biggest rival, the Ohio State Buckeyes, by margins of 15 points or more. Michigan kicks off the 2023 season with Jim Harbaugh absent from the sidelines, as the school has imposed a three-game suspension for its head coach.
How will this impact our college football Week 1 predictions?
Here is our best East Carolina vs. Michigan prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
East Carolina vs. Michigan prediction: Week 1
East Carolina Under 7.5 (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Of the top four teams in the preseason AP poll, Michigan is the only one not breaking in a new starting quarterback. The Wolverines' roster has arguably the fewest holes of any legitimate national championship contender. However, we are not backing Michigan’s point spread in this season opener because of uncertainty surrounding the offense without Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore on the sidelines (the latter is also part of the self-imposed suspension).
We expect Michigan’s defense to be galvanized in its head coach’s absence when making our college football best bets for Saturday. And given all of its departures, East Carolina could not have picked a worse opponent in a worse environment to open the season against.
The Pirates lost five-year quarterback Holton Ahlers, who departed as the school’s leader in passing yards, completions, and touchdowns. The offense has also lost a 1,400-yard rusher (Keaton Mitchell) and its top two wide receivers from a year ago, who each caught 1,000 yards worth of passes.
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The Pirates get back Rahjai Harris, who was named the AAC Rookie of the Year as a freshman, but he should be rusty after missing all but five games with a torn ACL last season. And though prized recruit Mason Garcia steps in at quarterback (ranked as the 14th-best quarterback coming out of high school by rivals.com), we do not expect him to have this offense looking anything like the one that finished in the top 50 of SP+ in two of the last three seasons.
Michigan’s defense returns its leading tackler from the defensive line (Kris Jenkins), its leading tackler overall (linebacker Junior Colson), a sixth-year graduate student at linebacker (Mike Barrett), and arguably the best cornerback in the country (Will Johnson), who PFF has as the No. 3 returning cornerback despite being just a sophomore. Along with one of the most veteran safety groups in the country, that is talent at all three levels that we expect to do its part in shutting down the East Carolina offense while holding a second straight opponent to one or fewer touchdowns in a season opener.
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East Carolina vs. Michigan best odds
bet365 (-115)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 (-135) | Over 7.5 (+104) | Over 7.5 (-115) |
| Under 6.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-132) | Under 7.5 (-115) |
The team total prop is unique to only a handful of our best sports betting apps, but there is a significant difference between the three major sportsbooks that do offer it. Though bet365 charges more than the standard -110 juice to back the Under, it provides massive value compared to FanDuel’s -132 odds. Meanwhile, a touchdown and extra point would already make bettors who back the Under at DraftKings a loser. Those that only use DraftKings as their preferred shop would be better served backing Michigan’s Under 0.5 touchdowns at +110 odds.
East Carolina vs. Michigan odds
East Carolina vs. Michigan odds analysis
There is a significant gap in the point spreads across our best sportsbooks, as FanDuel is as low as Michigan -35.5 (-115), with BetMGM and BetRivers the only shops offering -36.5. Accordingly, there are similar discrepancies among the first-half spreads, as FanDuel is at -19.5 (-178), while Caesars’ is bigger than three touchdowns and charges standard -110 juice on each side of the 21.5-point spread first-half spread.
All sportsbooks are in unison with the O/U of 51.5, though BetMGM and FanDuel charge slightly higher -115 odds to back the Over. Some sportsbooks may be compelled to raise the total before kickoff, as currently, the bets are roughly 3/1 (73/27) in favor of the Over.
East Carolina vs. Michigan game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 2, noon ET
- Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
- How to watch: Peacock
- Weather: 83 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph SW
East Carolina-Michigan predictions made 9/1/2023 at 6:45 a.m. ET
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