Early Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds & Picks: College Football Week 5
Week 5 offers a loaded slate of college football, and my early Oregon vs. Penn State prediction, as part of our college football predictions for Week 5, expects Dan Lanning's program to give the Nittany Lions issues again this season.
Penn State is a 3.5-point betting favorite for this matchup in Happy Valley, and my college football picks are backing the Ducks to cover.
The action gets underway on Saturday, Sept. 27, at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock) with College GameDay in tow at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa.
🏈 Oregon vs. Penn State prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football predictions.
🦆 Oregon +3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is an impressive 28-16-1 against the spread since taking over in Eugene in 2022, fourth-best among all programs. His Ducks are also 10-5-1 against the spread when on the road, 18th-best over that stretch.
On the other side of this matchup is Penn State head coach James Franklin, whose struggles in big games are well known. He is 20-24 against the spread versus ranked opponents since taking over the Nittany Lions in 2014. Meanwhile, Lanning is 10-6-1 in such games. Although Penn State comes in off a bye, Franklin is just 12-11 against the spread in those situations. He is also 1-15 straight up against top five teams, a threshold No. 6 Oregon misses by a single spot.
This year’s Oregon team, led by Heisman Trophy odds contender Dante Moore, appears unstoppable. Heading into Week 4, the unit led the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) among offenses. It’s hard to see them losing ground after their 34-point drubbing of Oregon State. Penn State’s offense ranked a solid 11th, but against such bad opponents, it’s concerning that they didn’t produce at a higher level. Penn State has opened the year 0-3 against the spread. Oregon’s offense should keep this within a field goal.
Lock in the Ducks to cover the 3.5-point spread at -110 (52.4%) at Caesars to score a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.
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📊 Oregon vs. Penn State odds: Week 5
College football odds update live in real time.
📈 Oregon vs. Penn State opening odds
- Moneyline: Oregon +122 | Penn State -145
- Spread: Oregon +3.5 (-110) | Penn State -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)
🔍 Oregon vs. Penn State odds analysis
The spread for Oregon vs. Penn State opened at Penn State -4.5 in August, and after strong play from both teams, it reopened at Penn State -3.5. Oregon looks dangerous, but hasn’t played anyone that good – the massive 66-point win over Oklahoma State feels much less impressive after the Cowboys’ loss to Tulsa.
Meanwhile, Penn State is in a similar spot, beating three unimpressive teams before an early bye week. However, the Nittany Lions have yet to cover once. While it’s difficult to cover 40-plus-point spreads, Oregon has two such wins to its name already to go with a 3-1 record against the spread.
I don’t expect much further movement in the spread at our best college football betting sites, but we could tick to the key number of three if the market is willing to stomach the risk of a high-flying Oregon squad playing on the road versus a team coming off a bye.
The total for this contest has been far less interesting. After opening at 52.5 in August, that’s exactly where it sits, per the latest Oregon vs. Penn State odds. I don’t expect much movement here, either.
📺 Oregon vs. Penn State game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
💡 More NCAAF expert picks for Week 5
- Early Oregon vs. Penn State prediction
- Early Alabama vs. Georgia prediction
- Early Auburn vs. Texan A&M prediction
- Early USC vs. Illinois prediction
- Early LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Early Notre Dame vs. Arkansas prediction
❓ Oregon vs. Penn State FAQs
Who is favored to win Oregon vs. Penn State?
The current moneyline odds for Oregon vs. Penn State at BetMGM are Penn State -160 (61.5%) and Oregon +135 (42.6%), which means a hold of just over 4%.
What are the opening odds for Oregon vs. Penn State?
After opening at Penn State -4.5 in the offseason, the odds for Saturday’s Oregon vs. Penn State game reopened at Penn State -3.5 on Sunday. The total of 52.5 remains unchanged from where it opened in the offseason.
How to watch Oregon vs. Penn State
Oregon vs. Penn State will be played Saturday, Sept. 27 at 7:30 p.m. ET, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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