Early 2026 Heisman Trophy Prediction: Best Bet To Win College Football's Top Honor
After winning college football's top individual honor this past season, Fernando Mendoza is presumed to be going pro following Indiana's CFP National Championship win, but my early 2026 Heisman Trophy prediction is expecting the award to stay in the Big Ten.
Though 11 of the top 12 favorites by the Heisman Trophy odds are QBs, my best bet seven months ahead of the start of the 2026 season is backing a player who plays the only other position to win the award over the last decade.
📊 Early 2026 Heisman Trophy odds
See the latest college football odds from our best college football betting sites.
| Player, POS | School | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Carr, QB | Notre Dame | +800 | 11.11% |
| Arch Manning, QB | Texas | +850 | 10.53% |
| Jeremiah Smith, WR | Ohio State | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Julian Sayin, QB | Ohio State | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Josh Hoover, QB | Indiana | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Dante Moore, QB | Oregon | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Gunner Stockton, QB | Georgia | +1300 | 7.14% |
| Sam Leavitt, QB | LSU | +1300 | 7.14% |
| John Mateer, QB | Oklahoma | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Jayden Maiava, QB | USC | +2000 | 4.76% |
🏆 Early 2026 Heisman Trophy prediction
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Best bet: Jeremiah Smith (+1100)
Not betting on a QB to win the Heisman might seem a little crazy, but Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football, and he happens to play a position that can win the award. Only four receivers have ever won the Heisman, but it's happened twice in the last six years.
Smith has been dominant since setting foot in Columbus, racking up 2,626 scrimmage yards and 29 touchdowns in his first two seasons with Ohio State. At 6-foot-3, 223 pounds, he's drawn comparisons to Julio Jones and is viewed as the No. 1 prospect in the 2027 NFL Draft.
After a sophomore season in which he led the Power Four in receiving yards (1,243) and yards per route run (3.44) while finishing sixth in Heisman voting, Smith's production should only increase as a junior.
He has one of the most accurate QBs in the country throwing to him (Julian Sayin) and closed the year out by putting up 301 receiving yards on 15 catches against the two teams that played in the national title (Indiana, Miami).
QBs at blue blood programs are being overvalued on the oddsboard, and I think Smith will pretty clearly be a top-three favorite by September (alongside Arch Manning and Dante Moore).
Long shot: Brendan Sorsby (+2500)
If I'm betting on a QB to win the Heisman Trophy, it's Moore, especially with Oregon being my early 2027 CFP National Championship prediction to win it all. Outside of Moore, I'd go with Manning after he closed the season so strongly, but I'm also intrigued by Brendan Sorsby.
The Cincinnati transfer, who began his career at Indiana, joins a Texas Tech program that should once again be the most talented in the Big 12 and push for a College Football Playoff spot.
Sorsby is the crown jewel of the Red Raiders' eighth-rated transfer portal class as the No. 2-rated portal player and is a big reason why Tech will be the Big 12 favorite. And he likely would have been a top 75 pick had he gone to the NFL instead of into the portal.
This past season at Cincinnati, Sorsby put up 36 TDs, finished 11th in the country in QBR (81.5), and top 10 in the nation in big-time throw rate (6.4%). He's poised to put up even bigger numbers at Texas Tech and could keep the trend of transfers winning the Heisman alive.
🔮 Way-too-early 2026 Heisman Trophy ballot projection
| Finish | Player, POS | School | Heisman Trophy odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Smith, WR | Ohio State | +1100 |
| 2 | Dante Moore, QB | Oregon | +1100 |
| 3 | Arch Manning, QB | Texas | +850 |
| 4 | Brendan Sorsby, QB | Texas Tech | +2500 |
| 5 | Julian Sayin, QB | Ohio State | +1100 |
| 6 | CJ Carr, QB | Notre Dame | +800 |
| 7 | Malachi Toney, WR | Miami | +2700 |
| 8 | Josh Hoover, QB | Indiana | +1100 |
| 9 | Ahmad Hardy, RB | Missouri | +8000 |
| 10 | Jayden Maiava, QB | USC | +2000 |
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