Duke vs. Virginia Prediction & Odds Today: ACC Championship Betting Preview
The ACC could be out of the College Football Playoff, so let’s dive into our Duke vs. Virginia prediction for today's ACC Championship and how its outcome might play a role in that.
No. 17 Virginia is a 3.5-point betting favorite over unranked Duke, which, with a win, may not be a top-5 conference champion. Our college football conference championship predictions will have you all ready when the action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.
Duke vs. Virginia predictions today: ACC Championship
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Duke vs. Virginia best bet & score prediction
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Duke +3 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
What a gross conference championship game. Virginia is 40th in the FPI, 38th in the FPI, and 34th in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. Among ACC teams, the Cavaliers are seventh, sixth, and sixth, respectively. Meanwhile, Duke is 46th, 54th, and 45th in those rankings, which equate to ACC rankings of ninth, 10th, and 10th. I don’t mean to pontificate, but will the ACC’s rules really produce the best outcome?
Regardless, this is the matchup we’re dealt, so let’s deal with it. The FEI makes Virginia a 5-point neutral-site favorite, while Sagarin makes Virginia a 6.3-point favorite. The neutrality of this site is somewhat questionable, as the drive is almost exactly twice as long from Durham, N.C., as it is from Charlottesville, Va. That said, with nothing but a conference title on the line, Duke has less to play for.
Will Virginia’s luck run out?
The Cavaliers have been one of the luckiest teams in college football this season. They rank 18th in Team Rankings’ luck rating (+1.4). Their good fortune has included a failed two-point conversion to beat UNC and a botched kickoff return (and subsequent safety) to beat Washington State. Virginia is also 29th in fumble recovery rate (59.3%). In the words of Jesse Pinkman, they “can’t keep getting with it!”
Duke hasn’t been so lucky. The Blue Devils are 82nd in luck rating (-0.2) and 79th in fumble recovery rate (48.3). While that doesn’t totally explain the lackluster 7-5 record, it may explain why most ratings systems don’t see a massive disparity between them and the 10-2 Cavaliers, who, may I remind you, lost to NC State and Wake Forest – a pair of transitive wins for Duke.
The Virginia offensive line has some serious injury woes, and Duke has the quarterback advantage with Darian Mensah (155.7 passing efficiency score) clearing Chandler Morris (135.6) by a healthy margin. I have some concerns about a possible motivation split, but, with Duke head coach Manny Diaz believing the Blue Devils “absolutely” belong in the playoff with a win, let’s bet the dogs at +3.5 for -110 (52.4%) on bet365
Score prediction: Duke 31, Virginia 28
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Duke vs. Virginia matchup to watch
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Darian Mensah vs. Virginia's secondary
I was very high on Mensah and the Blue Devils headed into this season, but head coach Manny Diaz couldn’t get the rest of the pieces in place. That’s no slight on Mensah – after coming out of nowhere at Tulane last year to post the sixth-best passing efficiency score (166.7), he currently ranks 21st (155.7) despite playing far tougher competition. Mensah is averaging an ACC-high 287.5 passing yards per contest.
It won’t be easy for Mensah on Saturday. Virginia ranks 33rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6), but the Cavaliers have dodged many of the conference’s best quarterbacks and allowed 250-plus passing yards to Tommy Castellanos, Miller Moss, and Ben Gulbranson. They contained Mensah at home a few weeks ago, but with Duke throwing 54.7% of the time (23rd) and nothing left to lose, don’t be surprised to see Mensah play hero ball and go Over 251.5 passing yards.
You can buy this prop for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel to return an $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.
Best prop bet: Darian Mensah Over 251.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
Duke vs. Virginia odds today
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Duke vs. Virginia betting trends
| Duke | Statistic | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L record | 10-2 |
| 5-6 | ATS record | 8-4 |
| 9 / 3 | O/U record | 5 / 6 |
| 6.28 | Yards per play | 5.83 |
| 6.21 | Yards allowed per play | 4.98 |
| +8 | Turnover margin | +7 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| W, 49-32 vs. Wake Forest | Previous result | W, 27-7 vs. Virginia Tech |
Duke vs. Virginia weather
The weather may play a factor in Saturday’s Duke vs. Virginia contest at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The forecast calls for a 49% chance of precipitation that day with temperatures in the high 30s. The forecast does call for winds, but not exceeding 5 mph.
How to watch Duke vs. Virginia today: ACC Championship
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
- TV: ABC
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