Duke vs. Virginia Player Props: ACC Championship Prop Picks

The ACC Championship is here, so let’s dive into our best Duke vs. Virginia player props. No. 17 Virginia is a 3.5-point betting favorite over unranked Duke in this neutral-site game.

Saturday's kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET (ABC) at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. My college football conference championship predictions include targeting Duke's passing game, rather than the Blue Devils' rushing attack.

Duke vs. Virginia player prop bets

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Best Duke vs. Virginia player prop picks

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Nate Sheppard player prop: Under 79.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Duke running back Nate Sheppard ran for only 43 yards on 12 carries versus Virginia earlier in the season. While the Blue Devils fell behind early and needed to throw, let’s give some credit to the Cavaliers’ rushing defense. Virginia ranks 22nd in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.4) and is around the ACC average in defensive line yards.

Sheppard’s rushing yardage prop likely requires Duke to run a lot, which is not guaranteed in this spot. It also doesn’t help that Duke has given Sheppard 20-plus carries in back-to-back weeks following the Virginia game. His efficiency dropped week-over-week in those matchups from 4.1 to 3.3, too.

I just don’t think Sheppard gets the carries he needs to go Over this line versus a decent Virginia defense. Buy the Under 79.5 for -114 (53.3% implied probability) to score a solid $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.

Darian Mensah player prop: Over 256.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Meanwhile, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah stands out as a solid Over play. I recommended him to go Over 251.5 passing yards earlier in the week, and I don’t hate paying for an extra five yards for -115 (53.5%) at BetMGM to get in on this prop. Mensah may need to play hero ball to get Duke over the top in this spot, especially if Virginia can score early like it did last time.

Virginia’s defense has put together a solid rate of yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6), but they didn’t play many of the conference’s best signal-callers. Lesser passers like Tommy Castellanos, Miller Moss, and Ben Gulbranson all went for 250-plus against Virginia. I’m high on Mensah, who leads the ACC in passing efficiency, to play better on Saturday than the first time he faced Virginia.

Best Duke vs. Virginia touchdown scorer prediction

Trell Harris TD pick: Anytime TD scorer (+165) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Virginia’s red-zone offense generally runs through running back J’Mari Taylor (-325 TD odds), but there isn’t much money to be made by backing him. After Taylor and his 14 touchdowns, the Cavaliers have four players with five touchdowns, including wide receiver Trell Harris. Let’s lock him in for +165 (37.7%) at DraftKings to find pay dirt. 

Harris ran wild versus Duke last time. He racked up 161 receiving yards on eight receptions, including a 56-yard catch, and found the end zone once. Harris now has over 800 receiving yards on the season. While three of his scores came against Stanford, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the talented receiver break off an explosive score with a trip to the college football playoff on the line.

Duke vs. Virginia anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live college football odds for every conference championship game.

How to watch Duke vs. Virginia: ACC Championship

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
• TV: ABC