Duke vs. California Prediction: College Football Week 6 Odds & Expert Picks

I’m here with my Duke vs. California prediction for one of just two late-slate games in Week 6 as our college football picks series continues. The action is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, Calif.

Despite playing on the road, Duke is a 2.5-point betting favorite. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football predictions for Week 6 so that you don’t miss out on any profitable picks, including the below wager for Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

🏈 Duke vs. California predictions

College football expert picks for Week 6; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: California +3 (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐
• Player prop bet: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Over 262.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Duke vs. California expert pick

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐻 California +3 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Both Cal and Duke have confused me this season. After losing Fernando Mendoza to Indiana, Cal has turned to upstart freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who owns a solid passing efficiency score (130.7) and is averaging just under 250 yards per game. He helped Cal knock off Minnesota and Boston College, but he held them back in a blowout loss to San Diego State. Duke’s Darian Mensah, a Tulane transfer, has an elite passing efficiency score of 166.9 (18th-best in the nation), but he couldn’t power the team by Tulane or Illinois.

Although Duke is probably the better team, it’s close. The Blue Devils rank 52nd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), outpacing 67th-ranked Cal. Duke’s offense, which ranks 48th in the FEI, has been its biggest asset, but Cal’s defense, which ranks 39th, should be able to answer. Cal’s 93rd-ranked offense raises some serious red flags, especially against Duke’s reasonably solid 56th-ranked defense. Still, I trust the young quarterback with Duke also ranked 116th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.8).

The biggest needle-mover for me is the schedule. Duke is coming off a road trip to Syracuse and now must head cross-country to the Bay Area for a game that will kick off at 10:30 p.m. ET. Last year, Cal hosted three East Coast teams, but only one played in the late window: Miami. Cal managed to hang 38 on that ranked Miami team to cover the spread and lose by just a point. Look for something similar this time around.  

Buy the Golden Bears to cover the 3 for -115 (53.5%) at bet365 to score a $8.70 profit on a $10 bet.

💰 Best Duke vs. California player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Over 262.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Duke’s defense struggling to stop the pass, let’s trust the young quarterback to clear his passing yardage prop. The Blue Devils aren’t just coughing up 8.8 yards per pass attempt, they’re also surrendering 289.8 passing yards per game (125th nationally) as their opponents opt to keep the ball in the air against them. I don’t expect this unit to turn things around after a cross-country trip for a late kickoff.

Sagapolutele should have plenty of chances to throw the football. Cal ranks 30th in passing play percentage (54.9%). While the young quarterback isn’t clearing this total every game, he has shown a steady floor with at least 200 passing yards in all five of his starts. It helps that he went Over in both of his home games, too, with 279 yards versus Minnesota and 267 versus FCS Texas Southern.

Back Sagapolutele to go Over 262.5 passing yards for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel to turn a $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 Duke vs. California odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Duke vs. California: Week 6

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Where: California Memorial Stadium (Berkeley, Cal.)
• TV: ESPN