Colorado vs. USC Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Can Trojans Cover Massive Spread?
Entering Friday's matchup, the USC Trojans are a 15-0 all-time against the Colorado Buffaloes. They're met with a large spread to cover in Week 11 as we look at our Colorado-USC picks and predictions.
As many expected, it has been a major struggle for Colorado (2-7 ATS, 6-3 O/U) this season. Colorado enters Friday’s contest with only one win, which came at home in overtime against California three weeks ago. CU has been terrible away from Boulder, with each of their four road games played to date featuring a losing margin of at least 23 points.
Meanwhile, USC (5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U) has now won two straight after a one-point loss to Utah. Although that still stands as the Trojans’ only defeat, they have notably struggled to cover the spread. Wins over less-talented Arizona and California teams the last two weeks only came by eight and six points, respectively.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 11 matchup between Colorado and USC (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 11, as well as our top upset picks and parlay!
Colorado vs. USC Game Info
Date: Friday, Nov. 11, 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Weather: 62 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-7 mph winds W
Colorado vs. USC Odds
Colorado vs. USC Odds Analysis
A massive opening spread of 34 points favoring the Trojans has held steady. While a very slight majority of the tickets are backing Colorado to cover (the public generally shies away from favorites with a big number), 61% of the handle is on USC.
The Over/Under has ticked up from the consensus opening line of 64 to 66 as of Friday morning. The Over has drawn the support of 67% of the tickets and 79% of the handle.
Colorado vs. USC Picks
Colorado vs. USC ATS Pick
USC -34 (-110) ★★
If USC has aspirations of making the College Football Playoff, anything less than a five-touchdown win over Colorado may not cut it. The Pac-12 as a whole is up against it in the CFP rankings. Given how other conference frontrunners like Oregon and UCLA have already demolished Colorado, the onus will be on the Trojans to follow suit.
USC’s offense figures to have no trouble piling up points in this matchup. To date, the Trojans have scored 30-plus points in every home game and at least 41 points in seven of nine games played overall.
Of course, for USC to cover as a 34-point favorite, the defense will need to play a whole lot better than it has recently. USC ranks 103rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Having given up 43, 37 and 35 points in the last three games, respectively, one has to hope that USC’s defense will be motivated to put together a better performance on Friday night.
It’s no secret that Colorado is downright terrible. As such, simply winning this game isn’t good enough. Covering the five-touchdown spread will help the Trojans in their quest to be taken seriously as a CFP contender.
Colorado vs. USC O/U Pick
Over 65.5 (-110) ★★★
With the threat of a blowout being very real, some bettors may be hesitant to play the Over on a game total in the mid-60s. However, it should be noted that even USC’s second-string offense could prove capable of scoring against lowly Colorado.
Whether or not USC’s offensive stars like Caleb Williams and running back Travis Dye will play the entire game remains to be seen. However, it may only take three quarters for the Trojans to score 45-50 points. USC comes in ranked second in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Lincoln Riley’s troops have gotten it done in both phases, averaging the 10th-most passing yards per game while also ranking as a top-40 rushing offense. There’s no denying that USC is an utter mismatch for a Colorado defense that ranks 112th nationally in adjusted efficiency.
Offensively, the Buffaloes have been even worse this season. Despite ranking 122nd out of 131 FBS teams in adjusted efficiency, one has to believe that Colorado can at least score a couple of touchdowns on Friday night.
Colorado vs. USC Prop Pick
Colorado team total Over 14.5 (-113) ★★★★
If you don’t relish the opportunity to get behind an absolutely terrible offense to go Over its team total against the No. 9 team in the country, can you even call yourself a college football bettor? We’ll look to do just that by taking Colorado to exceed 14.5 points on Friday night.
Through nine games, the Buffaloes have only scored more than 13 points on four occasions. Despite the uphill battle that the CU offense faces every time it takes the field, it doesn’t get much better than a matchup against the USC defense. After all, the Trojans have allowed at least 14 points in every game this season.
To date, Colorado has only faced two other teams that rank outside of the top-100 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffs achieved their highest road scoring output of the season (20) against Arizona and also put up 34 at home against Arizona State just two weeks ago. It may very well come down to garbage time, but look for the Buffaloes to get over this prop total.
Where to Bet on Colorado vs. USC
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Colorado-USC picks made 11/9/2022 at 2:15 p.m. ET
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