College Football Week 4 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

Is this already the last Saturday of September? This college football season has been way too much fun and though we have a long way to go, it’s going by so fast! It helps that we are 6-0 SU the last two weeks on outright upsets. Keep reading!

The board has as many as eight potential upsets when looking over the college football odds in our opinion. Of course, there are likely more but that is what we see offhand.

We are the first to admit, there are others with bigger brand names, nonetheless, these are our three faves and if correct, we won’t get paid more or less by the sports betting sites for choosing more marquee matchups.

Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State Aggies

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT Maverik Stadium

Boise State is 17-1 SU and 14-3 ATS against Utah State, what chance could the Aggies possibly have in this Mountain West matchup?

It starts with this Broncos team is not close talent-wise to past Boise State teams, as they no longer are recruiting as well out of California as before.

The Broncos have serious flaws in running the ball and stopping the run. Boise State is averaging 67 yards a game rushing, at a measly 2.1 yards a carry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqxhqUuG7SQ

Defensive Side

On defense, they're allowing 202 YPG rushing at 4.2 YPC. Most of this has come against Central Florida and Oklahoma State, who are good, not superior teams.

Blake Anderson is the new Utah State head coach and if that sounds familiar, he was at Arkansas State where he won the Sun Belt Conference twice and went to five straight bowl games in his time there from 2014-20.

He’s a sharp offensive mind and runs a balanced offense and Utah State is averaging over 530 yards at 41 points a game.

https://twitter.com/USUFootball/status/1439423991056199681?s=20

The Pick

Boise State opened at -12 and has since tumbled to -9 or -9.5. Wait to see if the Aggies go to +10 between now and kickoff for value, but the lower number would suffice with Utah State 11-2 ATS at home after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Wildcats' QB Will Howard (#15) will replace starter Skylar Thompson who left injured against Nevada in Week 3. Peter Aiken/Getty Images/AFP

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 07:00 PM EDT at Boone Pickens Stadium

For now, the days of Mike Gundy recruiting NFL quality quarterbacks are over and he’s relying on the running game and defense to win. Oklahoma State might be 3-0 (1-2 ATS), but their margin of victory is tight at 4.7 points a game.

The Cowboys are only averaging 336 YPG, which is 102nd nationally and that is 59 yards less a contest than what their opponents are allowing on the season.

https://twitter.com/KStateFB/status/1440349544961568771?s=20

Kansas State is also 3-0 (2-1 ATS), with their margin of winning at 15.3 PPG. The Wildcats are very physical on both sides of the ball and though they lost QB Skylar Thompson until later in the season, the K-State system and style do not require an elite signal-caller to be successful.

The Pick

Gundy for years was a good choice for college football picks with prolific offenses. That’s not the case today. Kansas State coach Chris Klieman is a stickler for details and the ‘Cats are 7-0 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers. Grab the points.

NCAAF Pick:

UAB's QB Tyler Johnston III (#17) throws a pass against the Georgia Bulldogs on September 11, 2021. Brett Davis/Getty Images/AFP

UAB Blazers vs. Tulane Green Wave

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 08:00 PM EDT at Yulman Stadium

Tulane finally can play their first home game, with the situation left behind by Hurricane Ida at least tolerable at this juncture.

The Green Wave gave a great effort when their home game moved to Norman, OK and they lost by just five to the Sooners as 31-point underdogs.

https://twitter.com/GreenWaveFB/status/1439430983221121027?s=20

Maybe it was playing three consecutive times without a home contest, but Tulane was overwhelmed by Mississippi’s offensive pace and lost by 40 last week.

We are big fans of UAB coach Bill Clark, who never left after the football program was shuttered and rebuilt it from scratch. In four-plus years, UAB is 36-17 and has played in two Conference USA championships, winning one.

The Pick

Both squads offer some positives when looking at betting trends.

However, four our NCAAF pick we’ll side the Blazers in situational handicapping with the total at 57, since they are 10-1 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 and 20-10 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

NCAAF Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.