Top College Football Expert Bowl Picks for New Year's Eve

Read on for our New Year's Eve college football expert bowl picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.

There are four college football games on the docket for New Year's Eve following the cancelation of the Arizona Bowl between Boise State and Central Michigan. Our college football experts offer up their top ATS and O/U picks for the Gator Bowl (Rutgers-Wake Forest), Sun Bowl (Central Michigan-Washington State), Cotton Bowl (Cincinnati-Alabama), and Orange Bowl (Georgia-Michigan).

Here's a look at the top ATS and O/U picks for the New Year's Eve college football bowl games from our team of experts. Picks and odds via Denis Lipka (BetMGM), Matt Jordan (DraftKings Sportsbook), Mike Spector (FanDuel Sportsbook), and Dakota Cox (Barstool Sportsbook).

Top New Year's Eve College Football Bowl Picks

Gator Bowl Picks

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ATS

Lipka:

It's important to point out just how effective the Demon Deacons are at moving the ball. QB Sam Hartman is an elite collegiate passer, boasting almost 4,000 yards and 36 touchdowns despite playing in the ACC. Most of Rutgers' opponents opted to pulverize its defense on the ground, as the Scarlet Knights surrendered 164.4 rushing yards per game.

I think Wake can mirror what Ohio State did to Rutgers with its spread passing. Wake Forest's delayed RPO attack is hard to defend without premier athletes and the feisty but young Scarlet Knights aren't ready for it yet.

Jordan:

This will end up being the biggest bowl spread of them all, and it’s an unprecedented situation of sorts as Rutgers was a late replacement for Texas A&M, which had to pull out due to COVID-19 issues.

I wonder how fired up the Deacons will be? Instead of facing a marquee SEC program, they get a 5-7 Big Ten bottom-feeder. Wake also lost starting receiver Jaquarii Roberson, as he opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. He had 71 catches for 1,078 yards and eight scores.

The Deacons will win but not by more than 14 points. Rutgers is 4-0 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and it will be very glad to be in this bowl.

Spector:

Rutgers was a late addition to the Gator Bowl. The Scarlet Knights had only one week to prepare, and they are in a tough spot having to motivate their players to get up for this game after they thought their season was done in late November. Wake Forest will roll.

Cox:

I preferred this line when it was closer to 14, but I still expect Wake Forest to dominate this game. Rutgers wasn’t bowl eligible, and the Demon Deacons had a great year with a solid offense that averaged 41.2 points per game. They return most players for this game, and they should be firing on all cylinders. 

The Wake Forest defense is hard to trust, but Rutgers repeatedly stalled its own drives without quality defenses on the other side of the field. That should happen again, and Wake Forest should win this game. As long as it remains focused, it'll cover as well.

SEE ALSO: Gator Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

The biggest question in this game is how well can the Scarlet Knights score against Wake's 87th-ranked scoring defense. We've seen the Knights use trick plays to advance the ball and score against better teams. I expect that to continue.

The problem is they're 113th in scoring and 67th in pass defense. Their offense went four weeks without scoring more than 13 at one point, and there's no consistency to speak of. Truly, they are reliant on defensive turnovers and deceptive play designs.

I simply can't put faith into that working against a focused Wake team. I'll take the total to fall shy of the optimistic 62.5 number.

Jordan:

Led by Hartman, the Deacons were an offensive juggernaut this year in averaging 41.2 points to rank fifth in the country. Wake Forest should get its 35 points even without Roberson.

Is Rutgers going to score somewhere between 25-30 points to potentially send this game Over? I don’t see it.

Several Rutgers players are working out for the draft, including leading rusher Isaih Pacheco (647 yards, five TDs). Greg Schiano teams play old school. In seven of their final nine games, the Knights didn’t score more than 16 points.

Spector:

This is a bit of a Catch-22 as we expect Wake Forest to put up plenty of points against an overmatched Rutgers defense but do not have confidence that Rutgers can keep up its end of the bargain in scoring points.

Expect Hartman to atone for his four interceptions in the ACC Championship Game in a big way; however, the Scarlet Knights offense will be too out of sync with little preparation for this game to push this over the projected total.

Cox:

Wake Forest usually has high point totals because of the offensive style and defensive struggles, which is why the Under went 7-6 in its games this season. Still, I like the Over on Friday. Rutgers should be able to score a few times with tricks and gimmicks. The Knights are playing with house money. 

Expect the first half to be a barn burner. After that, Wake Forest should pull away. Both teams will get on the board, and I think they combine for at least nine touchdowns.

Sun Bowl Picks

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ATS

Lipka:

This would be a tougher game to project if it were a coin flip spread, making the touchdown line somewhat shocking. Washington State has a solid defense that allows its average offense to do just enough to win. The Cougars offense barely creates more than they allow, notably being inefficient on the ground and too turnover prone through the air.

It's clear oddsmakers think the lower competition level of Central Michigan has boosted Washington State's chances. However, CMU handled business against lower-tier foes in a convincing enough fashion for me to be comfortable with its rushing offense and defense. The Chippewas' 6-1 stretch to end the season shouldn't be brushed off as they found their stride with young players stepping up.

Jordan:

Here’s another crazy situation as Washington State was supposed to play Miami in the Sun Bowl and Central Michigan to play Boise State in the Arizona Bowl. Alas, the Hurricanes and Broncos had to withdraw, so the Chips decided to move their base camp from Arizona to El Paso.

This is me largely fading the Pac-12, which has been a disaster in bowl games. The Cougars also lost starting running back Max Borghi, right tackle Abraham Lucas and cornerback Jaylen Watson to opt-outs. CMU closed on a four-game winning streak.

Spector:

Central Michigan is no stranger to being a big underdog, as it covered the spread in two of its three games this season as an underdog of at least 7.5 points. The Chippewas are an explosive offensive team, averaging 33.0 points and 451.9 yards per game. In addition, they do not beat themselves, as they committed just 11 turnovers in their 12 games. 

Many bettors will fade Central Michigan, claiming it's a team that thought its season was over when Boise State bowed out of the Arizona Bowl. However, in a game where the Chippewas are underdogs, it helps their case that the better team also had less than a week to prepare.

Cox:

In games like this one, motivation and focus matter more than anything else. Which team will get out of bed ready to play in the Sun Bowl? It’s hard to track that, but I expect CMU to have the edge. 

Central Michigan isn’t in the Power 5, but it has a chance to make a statement against Washington State. The Cougars struggled this year, but it would still be a big win.

SEE ALSO: Sun Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

Neither of these teams identifies as an offensive juggernaut, ranking no higher than 33rd in the nation in scoring. Yet, both Central Michigan and Washington State are top-66 in scoring defense. Weird things happen in bowl games but barring the ethos of both teams completely changing all of a sudden this should be a game in the low 50s.

It's likely oddsmakers looked at Central Michigan's three-game stretch from Oct. 23 through Nov. 10 and saw three Overs despite totals of 55.5, 64.5, and 76. Washington State had a total as high as this one twice, and both games cashed the Under. This line is a misread and we can capitalize in a big way.

Jordan:

If you watched the Mid-American Conference this year, it was pretty much all offense and no defense, so I expect both teams to go up and down the field. CMU ranked No. 2 in the conference in scoring 33.0 points per game but also allowed at least 30 points five times.

Chips running back Lew Nichols III would have been a Heisman finalist if he played at Michigan. He was named MAC Offensive Player of the Year and leads the nation in rushing with 1,710 yards and in all-purpose yardage with 2,010 yards.

Wazzu enters having scored 84 points in its previous two games and against defenses better than Central’s.

Spector:

For as explosive as Central Michigan's offense is, its pass defense is suspect. The Chippewas rank 114th in the country in pass defense (262.8 yards per game), the 11th-worst out of 12 teams in the conference. They adopted a bend-but-don't-break mentality, as they allowed 26.2 points per game, third-best in the conference. However, Washington State has a tandem of wide receivers that both were selected to the Pac-12 Second Team All-Conference Offense in Calvin Jackson Jr. and Travell Harris), making limiting Washington State's scoring output difficult.

Still, Central Michigan features one of the most underrated running backs in the country in Nichols. A big game from him will also be a big reason this game soars over the projected total.

Cox:

This game will likely be sloppy. Without either offense having a game-breaking talent, I expect mistakes and turnovers. 

Scoring might pick up in the second half, but I think mistakes will be in abundance, which will lead to the Under cashing tickets.

SEE ALSO: All College Football Bowl Odds, Lines, and Picks

College Football Playoff Bowl Picks

Cotton Bowl Picks

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ATS

Lipka:

Cincinnati deserves considerable respect for its accomplishments this season. The Bearcats are a well-coached, tough team with NFL talent on both sides of the ball, and they have the stars to give Alabama a tough, close game if everything goes right.

However, things rarely fall into place against a Nick Saban team like that. The Crimson Tide will dominate the trenches as always, and wear down Cincinnati as the second-half wears on. I also can't trust Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder to make superstar plays when he needs to, so I'll fade the Bearcats.

Jordan:

Think Bearcats coach Luke Fickell is playing the no-respect card here? A bit apples and oranges, but is Alabama 24.5 points better than Notre Dame? How about 28.5 points better than Houston? UC won by 11 at the Irish and beat the Cougars (who just beat Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl) by 15 in the AAC title game.

Cincinnati has the best defensive backfield in the nation in Coby Bryant and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner. Bryant won the Jim Thorpe Award and Gardner was an All-American. UC and Georgia are the only schools to rank in the top 10 of both scoring offense and defense. Do I think the Bearcats win? No.

Will I be waiting and hoping for 14.5 points? Yes, but I think this game stays within 10.

Spector:

Getting the Crimson Tide laying less than two touchdowns is an automatic play against a Group of Five Cincinnati team that will feel the pressure of having to carry the torch for the smaller schools in the College Football Playoff.

Saban's team played its best game of the season in the SEC Championship, and their experience of playing in the playoffs will be too much for the Bearcats to overcome.

Cox:

Alabama football has an elite record in the CFP semifinal. Since losing to Ohio State in 2015, the Tide have dominated against each opponent, with the closest game still being won by 11 points. 

Cincinnati has offensive firepower and an elite secondary, but it lacks the depth to keep up with the star-studded Alabama offense. As long as QB Bryce Young is given enough time to win in the pocket, the Tide offense will thrive. 

Losing WR John Metchie III hurts, but I like the Tide to dominate as they get one step closer to repeating as national champions.

SEE ALSO: Cotton Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

Alabama almost always scores in the 40s in these big games. That goes a long way when the total is under 60. Cincinnati is good enough to find creases and sustain drives on a good but not great Alabama defense, so getting to 24 is absolutely in the cards.

The best argument for an Under is that Cincinnati has shocking success on defense and completely stifles Young thanks to its two NFL-caliber cornerbacks. It's likely Young has some issues with tight passing windows, but Cincinnati can't throw the linebacker and pass-rush talent Georgia had available at Young, and we saw Young dominate that unit.

Jordan:

This total opened as high as 59 at some books so I like the Over a bit better now. A few weeks ago, Alabama hung 41 points on a historically good Georgia defense. What will Young and Co. do against the Bearcats?

Yes, UC ranks fifth nationally in allowing 16.1 points per game, but look at the schedule. On the flip side, Ridder, the two-time AAC Offensive Player of the Year, will be able to do some damage against a Tide defense that has sprung an occasional leak. Ridder passed for 3,190 yards and 30 touchdowns while adding 371 yards and six scores on the ground. He will be the best dual-threat QB Alabama has seen this year, as Ole Miss QB Matt Corral wasn’t fully healthy when the Rebs faced the Tide.

Spector:

This wager comes down to a lack of confidence that Cincinnati can score points against the most physical defense they have seen all year. In addition, the loss of Metchie hurts for Alabama, as he is the Tide's biggest playmaker on the outside.

Cox:

Alabama’s offense is electric, but it faces a stout secondary. Expect the Tide to score, but it would be surprising if they put up 45 or more points. Since Cincinnati would like to run the ball and win in the trenches, the Bearcats would rather have a low-scoring game. 

Even if Cincinnati keeps up for the first half, this will take both teams repeatedly scoring for four quarters. I find that unlikely given the setup of each offense and the magnitude of the moment for Cincinnati.

SEE ALSO: New Year's Eve College Football Bowl Picks and Props

Orange Bowl Picks

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ATS

Lipka:

Georgia and Michigan will be a classic battle won and lost in the trenches much like yesteryear's games. The problem for the favored Bulldogs is their rigid identity and lack of flexibility in case anything goes off-script. Alabama exposed both Georgia's offense and defense in the SEC Championship Game.

Michigan can't replicate everything Alabama did on offense but it's more physical and quarterback Cade McNamara has proven he's accurate enough under pressure to win. Michigan must bring the intensity and level of execution it had against Ohio State in order to win, but that performance wasn't a fluke.

Jordan:

I’m frankly stunned that oddsmakers are still giving Michigan this many points. Did they not see what U-M did to Ohio State in the regular-season finale and then to Iowa in the Big Ten title game? Frankly, I think the SEC has been overrated all season. Just look at the bowl results. While Georgia might have the better defense, it’s not by much.

Michigan’s offense is vastly superior with two stellar running backs in Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum and a very dependable QB in McNamara. Meanwhile, Dawgs QB Stetson Bennett looked like a former walk-on in the SEC title game loss to Alabama.

I’m not saying Michigan will win – although I’ve put some money on the U-M moneyline – but the Wolverines won’t lose by more than a TD.

Spector:

Michigan is the best ATS team in the country and covered in eight of its last nine games. However, much of its success all season has been centered around a physical running game that averages 223.8 yards per game on the ground (10th-most).

The Wolverines have yet to face a defense as physical as Georgia's, which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game (fourth-fewest). The Bulldogs' ability to control the game in the trenches will be the biggest reason they cover the spread.

Cox:

I don’t have much confidence here because this game could go one of two ways. Either Michigan shows up and keeps this one incredibly close, or Georgia runs the table. If the SEC Championship had not happened, I would expect Georgia to dominate this game. However, the Bulldogs showed weakness against the Crimson Tide. At this point, we have to find out if Alabama’s strategy can be replicated by other teams. 

Michigan will have the best player in this game in defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and has a solid run game. This complementary style of football should keep this one close. As long as the Wolverines don’t make any massive mistakes, they should be in this game in the fourth quarter.

SEE ALSO: Orange Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

This will be a true slog because of the physicality and athleticism involved for both teams. Neither team has a consistent downfield passing game, especially with Georgia's Stetson Bennett being exposed against Alabama. Bennett is not a consistent thrower, and Michigan can clog passing lanes and challenge Georgia's talented receivers one-on-one as well as anyone.

The only pathway for this game to hit the Over is a defensive or special teams touchdown adding unexpected points. I can't predict that when neither has happened with regularity for either squad, and both teams are well-coached.

Jordan:

Both head coaches, Kirby Smart and Jim Harbaugh, want to win with a strong running game, ball control, and defense. I’m sure there will be a trick play or two attempted, but this will be won in the trenches. Defensive, run-heavy games are almost always low-scoring.

UGA’s No. 1 scoring defense has the Outland Trophy and Bednarik Award winner in Jordan Davis and Butkus Award winner in Nakobe Dean. The UGA defense has allowed an FBS-low 11 touchdowns while the unit has scored three TDs. Led by Heisman Trophy runner-up Hutchinson, Michigan ranks fourth in scoring defense and 12th in total defense. Hutchinson is the No. 1-graded defender in all of college football at 94.7 via Pro Football Focus.

Spector:

While Georgia and Michigan rank No. 1 and No. 4, respectively, in scoring defense, their offenses each rank in the top 13 in the country in points per game. While Michigan's offense is not as explosive as Alabama's, the Wolverines can likely use the tape of the SEC Championship to find holes or mismatches in Georgia's defense.

The Over cashed in eight of Michigan's last nine games against top-10 opponents, and we believe this game will be higher scoring than the projected total.

Cox:

Georgia was known for hitting the Under this year because of stout defense. No one could find the end zone before Alabama. Again, will we see regular-season Georgia or SEC Championship Georgia?

I think Michigan will have a few gimmicks to steal points in this one, and the Wolverines should be able to keep up. If Michigan covers, the Over almost has to hit.

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