Orange Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan College Football Picks

The second College Football Playoff game of New Year's Eve pits the Georgia Bulldogs against the Michigan Wolverines. We break down all the betting angles with our Georgia-Michigan picks.

Georgia was the top-ranked team in the country for the vast majority of the season. With a defense that had been playing at a historic pace, it looked like it was shaping up to be a storybook season for the Bulldogs. However, a 41-24 loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship was a bump in the road.

This is the first time Michigan will be in the College Football Playoff. It has been a dream season for the Wolverines, but can they beat a Bulldogs team favored by more than a touchdown?

Here are my picks and predictions for the Orange Bowl matchup between Georgia and Michigan (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Georgia vs. Michigan Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FLWeather: 84 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 10 mph winds

Georgia vs. Michigan Odds Analysis

Georgia is the 7.5 point favorite at most sportsbooks, with FOX Bet being the lone exception with a line of -7. The spread is down from a number of -8 or -8.5 when it first opened. Michigan hasn't been this big of an underdog all season, and it is the most profitable FBS team against the spread, covering in 11 of 13 games. Sixty-four percent of the tickets and 68% of the cash is on Michigan to cover the big number.

Depending on the sportsbook, the Over/Under can be found as low as 44.5 or as high as 45.5 points. It would be the lowest total of any of Georgia's last seven games. Michigan hit the Over in a 42-3 win over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship. Ninety-three percent of the money and 74% of the bets are on the Over.

Georgia Betting Preview

Record: 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS, 6-7 O/UKey Players: QB Stetson Bennett, TE Brock Bowers, LB Nakobe Dean, DL Jordan Davis, OL Jamaree Salyer, OL Justin Shaffer, DB Derion KendrickNotable Trend: Under is 6-1 in Georgia’s last seven bowl games as the favoriteBowl History: 33-21-3 all-time record; 2020: Defeated Cincinnati 24-21 in the Peach Bowl

Georgia is looking to get the bad taste out of its mouth after suffering its first loss of the season in the SEC Championship. In that game, Alabama exposed a historically stout defense that had not allowed more than 17 points, as the Crimson Tide totaled 536 yards and 41 points. The Bulldogs had won 11 consecutive games by at least 17 points up to that point.

Georgia has NFL talent on both sides of the ball, including potential first-round picks in Dean and Davis.

Michigan Betting Preview

Record: 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, 7-6 O/UKey Players: DL Aidan Hutchinson, RB Hassan Haskins, OT Ryan Hayes, QB Cade McNamara, RB Blake Corum, LB David Ojabo, DB Daxton HillNotable Trend: 5-0 ATS in last five games, but 0-4 ATS in last four bowl gamesBowl History: 21-27 all-time record; 2020: Did not appear in a bowl game

Michigan was picked to finish fourth in the Big Ten East in the preseason media poll but continued to prove doubters wrong each week. The Wolverines' most significant win was a 42-27 rout of Ohio State in the regular-season finale, a play-in game to the Big Ten Championship. It was also head coach John Harbaugh's first career win over Ohio State and ended a streak of five straight losses to the Buckeyes.

Five of the Wolverines' last six wins were by at least 15 points, and their 39-point win over Iowa in the conference championship was their second-largest margin of victory this season. They have the potential first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft in DL Aidan Hutchinson.

Georgia vs. Michigan Picks

Georgia -7.5 (-105) ???? Over 45 (-115) ???Georgia -4 (-115) first half ???Second-half total Under 22.5 (-105) ??Georgia to win by 13-18 (+370) ??

SEE ALSO: All College Football Bowl Odds, Lines, and Picks

Georgia vs. Michigan Predictions

Georgia -7.5 (-105)

Michigan is the best ATS team in the country and covered the number in eight of its last nine games. However, much of its success all season was centered around a physical running game that averaged 223.8 yards per game to rank 10th in the country.

Michigan has yet to face a defense as physical as Georgia's, which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game (fourth-fewest). The Bulldogs' ability to control the game in the trenches will be the biggest reason they cover the spread in a win by eight or more points.

Over 45 (-115)

While Georgia and Michigan rank No. 1 and No. 4, respectively, in scoring defense, their offenses each rank in the top 12 in the country in points per game, as well.

While Michigan head coach Harbaugh's offense is not as explosive as Alabama's, the Wolverines can likely use the tape of the SEC Championship to find holes or mismatches in the Bulldogs defense.

The Over cashed in eight of Michigan's last nine games against top-10 AP-ranked opponents. We believe this game will be higher scoring than the projected total.

Georgia -4 (-115) first half

Georgia has had almost four weeks to stew over its loss in the SEC Championship Game, and there is no doubt that Kirby Smart has used that as motivation for his players in practice. All of that should result in a dominant first half for the Bulldogs, who will overwhelm the Wolverines at first with their speed and physicality.

Georgia outscored opponents by 3.24 points per drive this season, meaning it was a field goal better than its opponents each possession on average. As a result, it will be difficult for Michigan to keep up in the game's first 30 minutes.

SEE ALSO: Cotton Bowl Picks

Second-half total Under 22.5 (-105)

It is risky to make a second-half wager before a game starts, as it is typically wiser to see how the first half plays out beforehand. However, one may also benefit from a better line with such an early wager, which we are hoping for with this play.

We made a case for Georgia to have a big halftime lead, which means it is likely Kirby Smart will take the air out of the ball in the second half. In addition, Georgia should not get too creative with a big lead, knowing it has one more game looming.

Georgia to win by 13-18 (+370)

We already made a case for Georgia to cover the spread and think the odds of winning in the two-touchdown range are too good to pass up. There are many scenarios where the final margin of victory could end up in this range, from a late Georgia touchdown to seal the game to a backdoor Michigan comeback if the Bulldogs raced out to a big early lead.

With Georgia unlikely to lose the game outright, one can get much better odds with a winning margin bet than a straight moneyline wager for their Georgia-Michigan Orange Bowl picks.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Georgia-Michigan Orange Bowl picks made on 12/27/2021 at 7:07 p.m. ET.