Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Alabama College Football Picks

Will the Alabama Crimson Tide repeat as National Champions or will the Cincinnati Bearcats show us why the non-Power 5 schools deserve a spot in the playoffs? We cover all the betting angles with our Cincinnati-Alabama picks.

Alabama stunned us all with a convincing win over the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. They scored 41 points on the nation's top defense and will get another crack at a top defensive unit in Cincinnati in the College Football Playoff.

Cincinnati enters the playoffs as a perfect 13-0 on the season and a convincing win over the Houston Cougars in the American Championship Game. They are the first non-Power 5 school to make the college football playoffs.

Here are my picks and predictions for the Cotton Bowl matchup between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Alabama Crimson Tide (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cincinnati vs. Alabama Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, Dec. 31, 3 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TXWeather: Indoors

Cincinnati vs. Alabama Odds Analysis

Alabama opened as a -13.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks. This number has held steady at -13.5, even with 83% of the cash and 80% of the tickets on the Crimson Tide.  The books seem content with keeping the spread off the key number of 14. The best number on Alabama can be found at Circa Sports, where Alabama is currently a -12.5-point favorite.

Unlike the spread for this game, the total opened at varying numbers. Circa Sports opened with the lowest total at 56.5 and DraftKings Sportsbook opened with the highest total at 59. Currently, 77% of the money and 78% of the tickets are on the over in this game. The current total is hovering around 58, with less of a discrepancy across the books than when it opened.

Cincinnati Betting Preview

Record: 13-0 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/UKey Players: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Jerome Ford, DB Ahmad GardnerNotable Trend: 3-0 ATS in last 3 gamesBowl History: 10-10 all-time record; 2020: Lost 24-21 to Georgia

The Cincinnati Bearcats have an opportunity to show what a non-Power 5 school can do in the College Football Playoffs if they pick off Alabama. Cincinnati has a 22-1 record over the last two seasons and is currently undefeated (13-0) this season.

Cincinnati is led by veteran QB Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford. They also boast one of the best defenses in the NCAA and a potential first-round pick in DB Ahmad Gardner. In his career at Cincinnati, Gardner has never allowed a touchdown over 1,026 snaps.

Alabama Betting Preview

Record: 12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS, 5-8 O/UKey Players: QB Bryce Young, WR Jameson Williams, RB Brian Robinson Jr., LB Will Anderson, T Evan NealNotable Trend: 5-0 SU at AT&T StadiumBowl History: 44-26-3 all-time record; 2020: Defeated Notre Dame 31-14 and Ohio State 52-24

Alabama is back in the playoffs and is looking to repeat as National Champions for the second time under Nick Saban since 2012.

They will be led by Heisman Trophy winner QB Bryce Young and future first-round pick WR Jameson Williams. The passing attack took home some trophies this season, but their running game is just as special. Brian Robinson Jr. lead the SEC in touchdowns (14) and missed tackles (61).

Will Anderson Jr. had 15.5 sacks, 32.5 tackles for loss, and 91 total tackles for the Alabama defense this season. For context, Anderson Jr. had more tackles for loss than Joey Bosa, Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald, and Chase Young ever posted in a single season.

Cincinnati vs. Alabama Picks

Alabama -12.5 (-109) ????Over 58 (-110) ?Alabama first-half team total Over 17.5 (-110) ???Alabama team total Over 35.5 (-110) ???Alternate spread Alabama -19.5 (+170) ???

SEE ALSO: College Football Bowl Odds, Betting Lines, and Picks

Cincinnati vs. Alabama Predictions

Alabama -12.5 (-109 via Circa Sports)

This pick is all about betting what you think will happen and not what you want to happen. I’d love to see Cincinnati cover this game and keep the door open for other non-Power 5 schools in the future, but I just can’t get there in this matchup.

I went back and rewatched some of Cincinnati’s key games from this season in preparation for this game. One thing really jumped out at me when I watched their game against Notre Dame. To say they were very fortunate in the turnover department is an understatement. In the first 18 minutes of this game, Notre Dame threw an interception in the Cincinnati end zone, had a second interception which set up Cincinnati first and goal from the eight, and then fumbled the following kickoff to put Cincinnati right back in the red zone. This was the win that essentially sent them to the playoffs, but it wasn’t as dominant as the score might appear.

The other thing that stood out to me was the ability of opposing offenses to rattle off chunk running plays early in the game. Cincinnati ended up taking large leads on several of their opponents, so many teams were forced into abandoning the run. I question whether Cincinnati can play blocks and slow down Robinson and Alabama’s rushing attack the entire game. The game script almost always favored Cincinnati since they were the superior team in several of their matchups. Their defensive advantage is on the outside with their defensive backs, so taking early leads played right into their strengths. This is also what happened to the Notre Dame offense when they got down early because of the turnovers.

I believe Alabama will dominate the line of scrimmage and be able to move the ball on Cincinnati’s defense. Once Alabama jumps out to an early lead, I also think the defense will force Ridder and the Bearcats offense into some turnovers. I like Alabama laying the -12.5 against Cincinnati and it's why it's our top pick.

Over 58 (-105 via DraftKings)

This isn’t my favorite over on the board because it requires some help from Cincinnati. I wouldn’t take the under in this scenario because of the next couple of picks I am going to suggest.

To me, this Over will come down to what you get from Cincinnati’s offense. There could be several scenarios where they might pass on a field goal and end up going for it because of their struggles kicking this season. The score might also force them into going for touchdowns when in the red zone. Cincinnati’s ability to convert fourth-down plays into a touchdown could be the difference in this number going over the total.

Alabama first-half team total Over 17.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

In the American Championship, Houston scored on their first three possessions against Cincinnati. Notre Dame also took their opening drive down the field on Cincinnati but ended up throwing an interception in the end zone.

Alabama averaged 23.4 points per game in the first half this season. I think they will hit the ground running and be able to rattle off several chunk plays against the Cincinnati defense. Expect to see a lot of Robinson early and Alabama establish the line of scrimmage.

Alabama team total Over 35.5 (-120 via DraftKings)

Cincinnati has an elite defense, but things can go sideways quickly when a defense is put in a situation they haven’t faced all year. What happens when you aren’t playing with a lead and the opposing team starts to rattle off consecutive scores? It's not uncommon for an elite defense to fall apart and struggle in these scenarios. Just ask Georgia.

Cincinnati has NFL playmakers on their defense but not at every level. The Alabama coaching staff has too much experience to not attack the weak points of the Cincinnati defense. They aren’t going to be looking to challenge Gardner in this game. They know they have an advantage at several positions, and they will look to exploit those matchups.

Aggressive playcalling by Cincinnati and a QB in Ridder who isn’t afraid to take chances could create some short fields for Alabama in the second half. I like the team total over because I don’t believe they will let up on Cincinnati regardless of the score.

Alternate spread Alabama -19.5 (+170 via DraftKings)

Nick Saban has been very outspoken about a non-Power 5 school making the College Football Playoffs. The SEC has the most to gain from this game ending with an Alabama blowout. They are a league that consistently has a chance at two playoff teams each season and would love to eliminate any future group of 5 teams from being in the playoff discussion.

This will be the first matchup where a group of 5 school gets to play a top opponent and motivation can’t be questioned. The group of 5 schools has faired well in the New Year’s Day bowl games in the past but there has always been that element of motivation and opt-outs from the bigger programs. Cincinnati isn’t facing an SEC school that is disappointed to be out of the playoffs this time. They are facing one looking to win back-to-back National Championships.

I believe Nick Saban and Alabama will run up the score if they get the opportunity to against Cincinnati. A convincing win by a large spread will only help the Alabama and SEC narrative in future playoff rankings. They might be viewing this as their chance to eliminate any future non-Power 5 teams from entering the playoffs.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Cincinnati-Alabama picks made on 12/27/2021 at 3:49 p.m. ET.