Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio) Picks, Predictions College Football Week 3: Victory Bell Up for Grabs
The latest installment of college football’s oldest nonconference rivalry game is on tap for Saturday afternoon. Here are our picks as the Cincinnati Bearcats and Miami (Ohio) Redhawks battle for the Victory Bell.
After dropping its season-opener, Cincinnati (1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U) got back in the win column last week by trouncing an FCS opponent. The Bearcats are hefty favorites for this year’s Victory Bell rivalry game and will look to win their 16th straight in the series.
Miami (0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U) also earned its first win last week over an FCS school. The Redhawks will be seeking their first win over Cincinnati since 2005.
Here are our top picks for the Week 3 matchup between Cincinnati and Miami (Ohio) (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale)
Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio) Picks
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Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio) ATS Pick
Cincinnati -22 (-110) ★★★
From 2014-17, Miami was able to keep the final margin within a touchdown against Cincinnati despite losing each time. However, as the Bearcats have risen to national prominence in recent years under head coach Luke Fickell, the gap between the two schools in the annual Victory Bell game has widened.
The Bearcats have won the last three meetings by 21, 22, and 35 points, respectively. Miami has only mustered 27 points total in the last three editions of this rivalry. Cincinnati may have lost a ton of defensive players to the NFL this offseason, but a shorthanded Redhawks’ offense figures to struggle once again on Saturday.
Coming into the 2022 season, the outlook for Miami’s offense was high given that nine starters were back. Unfortunately, All-MAC quarterback Brett Gabbert was injured in the fourth quarter of the RedHawks' Week 1 matchup against Kentucky. Prior to this season, all QBs behind Gabbert on the depth chart had just one career pass attempt between them. With Miami essentially posing no threat of a passing game, Cincinnati should roll.
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Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio) O/U Pick
Under 51.5 (-110) ★★
Relative to other sportsbooks in the college football betting market, BetMGM’s game total of 51.5 is a half-point or more higher. Given the dicey quarterback situation that Miami carries into this game, it’s fair to question whether the RedHawks will even be able to crack double figures.
Despite all of the departures from last year’s dominant Bearcats defense, Cincinnati still has plenty of talent on that side of the ball. With an inexperienced backup quarterback under center, the only way the RedHawks can make this a game is to show out defensively.
Despite returning only five starters for the 2022 season, the Miami defense has played quite well in the early going. The Redhawks held Kentucky to just 13 first-half points in their Week 1 matchup. The Cincinnati offense struggled to finish drives against Arkansas. Perhaps Miami can deploy a bend-but-don’t-break defensive philosophy in an effort to keep the margin respectable.
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Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio) Prop Pick
Cincinnati first-half total Over 19.5 (-135) ★★★★
In last year’s Victory Bell rivalry game, Cincinnati would have exceeded this first-half team total line in the first quarter. The Bearcats jumped out to a 21-0 lead after the first period and ultimately led 35-0 at the half.
Even if the Miami defense is able to hold its own initially, fatigue will likely become a factor sooner than later with the expectation that the offense won’t be able to sustain drives. Twenty first-half points are more than doable for Ben Bryant and the Cincinnati offense, especially if they are able to dominate time of possession early on.
Where to Bet on Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio) Picks
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Cincinnati-Miami (Ohio) picks made 9/16/2022 at 12:41 p.m. ET
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