College Football Playoff Bracket & Best Bets After Texas, Penn State Fall Out of Contention

Just six weeks into the college football season, and two teams that were viewed as borderline playoff locks a month ago aren't even among the College Football Playoff odds favorites anymore.

It's not even mid-October, and both Texas and Penn State, the top two teams in the preseason AP Top 25, have two losses each, including both programs dropping games to unranked opponents in Week 6. As the CFP picture continues to take shape, it's becoming increasingly clear that a few surprise teams are poised to get into the College Football Playoff.

With eight weeks left in the regular season, and the Longhorns and Nittany Lions out of the picture, turn your attention to a pair of other SEC and Big Ten teams for college football picks ahead of the CFP and bowl season.

🧩 My College Football Playoff bracket

🎯 Best College Football Playoff bets

🔴 Indiana (-130)

• SP+ ranking: No. 3 (No. 7 offense, No. 6 defense)
• Biggest games: at Oregon (Oct. 11), at Penn State (Nov. 8)
• When to bet: After the Oregon game

Like Texas Tech, Indiana came into the season as one of the best College Football Playoff bets you could make, thanks to their plus-money odds as a non-blue blood program. But also like the Red Raiders, the Hoosiers' CFP odds have shortened rapidly and are now minus-money thanks to Penn State and Texas' losses.

That's unsurprising considering they blew out Illinois 63-10 when the Fighting Illini were ranked No. 9 and have a legitimate Heisman Trophy odds contender at QB in Fernando Mendoza. Still, these -130 odds pay a solid $7.69 profit if IU makes the CFP, which is a far better value than most undefeated teams (especially when compared to the teams that also rank top 10 in SP+).

However, the smart move is to wait until after this week's road game against Oregon. The Ducks are the No. 1-ranked team by SP+ and are a 7.5-point betting favorite at home, so Indiana will likely lose. While that may not be ideal for Indiana CFP bettors in theory, it should lengthen this price to some degree (and they could be plus-money after a loss).

Obviously, that also means they'd need to go undefeated the rest of the way, which I believe will happen. Indiana's only other game against a team ranked top 30 by SP+ is against Penn State (No. 18), and the Nittany Lions just gave a winless UCLA its first victory of the season.

Curt Cignetti's team doesn't just have a potential first-round pick at QB; it's loaded with a ton of NFL talent on both sides of the ball. With playmakers like Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., linemen like Kahlil Benson and Pat Coogan, and defenders like D'Angelo Ponds and Mikail Kamara, Indiana should be able to pull off an 11-1 regular season for the second straight year.

🐯 Missouri (+200)

• SP+ ranking: No. 8 (No. 13 offense, No. 13 defense)
• Biggest games: vs. Alabama (Oct. 11), at Vanderbilt (Oct. 25), vs. Texas A&M (Nov. 8), at Oklahoma (Nov. 22)
• When to bet: After a loss (probably Alabama)

The path to the College Football Playoff is a little more overgrown for the Tigers, which is why you can bet them right now at +200 with a $10 bet paying a $20 profit. Missouri has to play four teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25, including a college football championship odds favorite this Saturday.

But much like with Indiana likely to lose to Oregon this week, which will lengthen the Hoosiers' CFP odds, I'm expecting Missouri to fall to Alabama on Saturday. A loss to the Crimson Tide could bring the Tigers' CFP odds to the +400 range, which would make them by far the best value on the board, if they aren't already at +200.

The Tigers have the longest CFP odds of any team ranked top 10 by SP+, and while they would still need to go at least 5-1 over their last six games if they lose to Alabama, I think that's entirely possible. For whatever reason, Missouri isn't getting the same treatment that other top SEC teams are, sitting just No. 14 in the most recent AP top 25.  

That puts them behind one-loss SEC teams like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee - plus undefeated SEC teams like Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. I think the undefeated Tigers are better than at least three of those teams, and the fifth-best SEC team has a good shot at making the CFP this year.

But if Missouri loses to Alabama, can it go 2-1 against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma? Yes, because not only does Missouri have one of the most efficient QBs in the country in Beau Pribula (78.2 QBR), but it has arguably the best running back in the sport and dominant trench play on both sides of the ball.

Buy in on Missouri because of running back Ahmad Hardy - who leads the country in forced missed tackles (46) - but believe they can even win a CFP game because of an O-line led by Cayden Green and a D-line led by Zion Young. Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has built one of the most impressive teams in the country, so don't be surprised if he lands a blue-blood job soon.

📊 Live College Football Playoff odds 2025-26

Latest College Football Playoff odds; see the best college football odds in real time.

🚨 College Football Playoff odds movement 

• Texas opened with the second-shortest College Football Playoff odds (-260), but the Longhorns' current odds (+280) imply just a 26.32% probability they'll make the CFP
• Not far behind Texas when Penn State opened with -235 CFP odds, the Nittany Lions are now +700, implying a 12.5% probability they will make the playoff
• Ohio State (-325 to -3000) and Oregon (-260 to -1800) opened among the biggest preseason favorites by the College Football Playoff odds and have seen their odds shorten drastically
• Miami (+210 to -2000), Ole Miss (+142 to -175), and Texas A&M (+245 to -165) have all played themselves into minus-money odds
• Three non-traditional powers that have risen the most since the CFP opening odds are Texas Tech (+490 to -155), Indiana (+630 to -130), and Missouri (+590 to +200)

❓ College Football Playoff FAQs

Who are the College Football Playoff favorites?

Ohio State (-3000), Miami (-2000), Oregon (-1800), and Alabama (-300) are the biggest College Football Playoff odds favorites. Their odds imply they all have at least a 75% probability of making the CFP.

Who is the CFP national championship favorite?

Ohio State is the favorite to win the college football national championship for the 2025-26 season. The Buckeyes' odds (+425) imply a 19.05% probability that they'll repeat as champions, according to our odds calculator.

How many teams make the College Football Playoff?

The College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams last season, with the top five ranked conference champions automatically qualifying for the CFP. The College Football Playoff selection committee decides the remaining seven at-large bids. 

The four highest ranked teams will receive a first-round bye in the playoff, with the CFP switching to straight seeding this year.

Who made the College Football Playoff last year?

Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, and Clemson were the programs selected to participate in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.