College Football Playoff Odds 2025-26: Best Bets and Who to Avoid After Week 1

Just one week into the college football season, four top-10 teams have already suffered losses and the College Football Playoff odds leader among the Group of Five got blown out, so it's safe to say plenty of CFP projections have already been busted.

Despite the small sample size, Week 1 of the season is a strong indicator for which programs have a shot to make the 12-team College Football Playoff and which will have to settle for bowl games with sponsors you've never heard of (no shade to the Pop-Tarts Bowl and Duke's Mayo Bowl, though).

So, who are the best programs to bet on after Week 1 to make the CFP, and which should you avoid with your college football picks?

📊 Live College Football Playoff odds 2025-26

Our College Football Playoff odds update in real time based on the latest college football odds.

🎯 Best College Football Playoff bets after Week 1

🔴 Utah (+450)

For anyone who stayed up late on Saturday night for what we once referred to as Pac-12 After Dark, they got a glimpse at how good Utah could be this season. New QB Devon Dampier and offensive coordinator Jason Beck, both of whom Kyle Whittingham brought over from New Mexico, put on a show in a 43-10 road win over UCLA.

Dampier's mobility was electric (87 rushing yards, five forced missed tackles), and Beck's run designs had the Bruins grabbing at air (Utah ran for 286 yards). But it was Dampier's passing productivity that has me buying in on the Utes as a CFP threat. He had zero turnover-worthy plays with an 84% adjusted completion rate, and Beck found a weapon in two-way player Smith Snowden.

Snowden wasn't Utah's only defensive player to see time on offense, either, with star linebacker Lander Barton also joining the scoring parade. When Barton wasn't moonlighting on offense, he led a reinvigorated Utah defense alongside Logan Fano and John Henry Daley - a unit that ranks eighth in SP+ after cooking UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava.

With Dampier and Beck reinventing this offense and the Utes looking like they have a classic Whittingham defense, Utah is now the Big 12 Championship odds favorite. Thanks to a manageable schedule, I'm jumping at these odds, which pay a $45 profit on a $10 winning bet.

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🐯 LSU (+115)

It's kind of crazy that you can still get LSU at plus-money after the Tigers took down Clemson on the road in the battle of Death Valley. It's particularly perplexing given that Garrett Nussmeier is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite following what was arguably the most impressive QB performance of Week 1, even if the stats don't show it.

In a season that looks like it might be defined by inexperience at the QB position for blue blood programs, it's hard to pass on backing a LSU team with the most trustworthy quarterback in the country. It's just one game, but I think this is the year that Brian Kelly finally takes LSU to that next level, especially with so many offensive weapons around Nussmeier - Aaron Anderson, Caden Durham, Zavion Thomas, Barion Brown, Trey'Dez Green, to name a few.

It's fair to doubt Kelly after LSU failed to make the College Football Playoff with a Heisman-winning QB in Jayden Daniels, but unlike that team from two years ago, these Tigers play defense. Blake Baker seems to have transformed that side of the ball for LSU in his second season in charge, with Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks flying around the field. Additions like Mansoor Delane, Jack Pyburn, and Patrick Payton via the transfer portal don't hurt, either.

The Tigers rank No. 5 in SP+ and are one of just two teams ranked in the top eight on both offense and defense after Week 1. These odds will likely get much shorter over the next few weeks, but for now, a $10 winning bet on LSU pays a $15 profit.

🌴 Miami (+200)

A lot like Kelly at LSU, it looks like Miami's Mario Cristobal could finally have the team he needs to get over the hump. The Hurricanes took down Notre Dame as a 2.5-point underdog and completely shut down the best running back in the country, Jeremiyah Love, while holding the Fighting Irish to just 3.5 yards per carry.

The defensive line combo of Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor was unblockable, and Miami's offensive trench play was similarly dominant - not a shocker from a Cristobal-coached team. With the Hurricanes having dominant lines on both sides of the ball, the biggest question was what this passing game would look like this season with Cam Ward gone. The answer? Pretty great.

Georgia transfer Carson Beck looked like the guy from two years ago, when he featured No. 1 pick buzz. And his playmakers were just as impressive with CJ Daniels making the best catch of the week and true freshman Malachi Toney looking like one of the most explosive weapons in the country. 

While Miami may not have enough to be a college football national championship odds contender this season, it looks like it could give Clemson a run at the ACC title this year. The 'Canes also don't play the Tigers in the regular season and could get in as an at-large bid if they don't win the conference. With a clearer path to the CFP than many SEC and Big Ten teams, Miami's odds paying a $20 profit on a $10 winning bet are hard to pass on.

🚫 Teams to avoid with College Football Playoff bets

🐘 Alabama (+160)

Losing to a Florida State team predominantly made up of transfers as a 13.5-point betting favorite is about as bad as it gets, at least for Alabama. Kalen Deboer's job security is in so much doubt that there are already Alabama next coach odds. And while I'm doubtful he'll be fired, due to a $63 million buyout, I don't see how this team gets to double-digit wins after a 0-1 start.

Even as one of the most talented teams in the country on paper, the Crimson Tide are bound to lose two of their games in conference play. Their SEC schedule is loaded - Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn - and Ty Simpson didn't look ready to be a starting QB on the road in Tallahassee.

Unless DeBoer and Ryan Grubb somehow find an answer at QB, I can't trust this team to make the College Football Playoff. The vibes are about as bad as they can get in Tuscaloosa, and Nick Saban isn't walking through that door ... Crimson Tide fans can only hope that one of his disciples will be come January. 

🐴 Boise State (+550)

Everyone knew that Boise State would take a step back this season with Ashton Jeanty off to the NFL. But I don't think any of us knew how big a step back it would be until Byrum Brown ran wild against the Broncos to hand them a 34-7 loss in Week 1.

It would appear that Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod can't replace Jeanty (not a shocker) and that Maddux Madsen is nothing more than a serviceable QB who needs a generational G5 running back to prop him up (a bit of a shocker). The more concerning takeaway from the Broncos' loss, though, was how bad the defense was and how many tackles it missed - the unit ranks 75th in SP+.

Madsen clearly doesn't have the talent to lift this team, and this defense is closer to a liability than a strength under Spencer Danielson. Suffering a loss in this fashion to a fellow Group of Five team is a death knell in a race for one College Football Playoff spot among dozens of G5 programs. The G5 spot is poised to go to the winner of the American this year, and I'd bet that it's Tulane (+500).

🔮 My College Football Playoff predictions after Week 1

❓ College Football Playoff FAQs

Who are the College Football Playoff favorites?

Ohio State (-400), Texas (-400), Penn State (-370), and Georgia (-300) are the biggest College Football Playoff odds favorites. Their odds imply they all have a 75% or better probability of making the CFP.

Who is the CFP national championship favorite?

Ohio State is the favorite to win the college football national championship for the 2025-26 season. The Buckeyes' odds (+600) imply a 14.29% probability that they'll repeat as champions, according to our odds calculator.

How many teams make the College Football Playoff?

The College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams last season, with the top five ranked conference champions automatically qualifying for the CFP. The College Football Playoff selection committee decides the remaining seven at-large bids. 

The four highest-ranked teams will receive a first-round bye in the playoff, with the CFP switching to straight seeding this year.

Who made the College Football Playoff last year?

Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, and Clemson were the programs selected to participate in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

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