CFP National Championship Odds & Storylines: What We Know So Far
On one side is an undefeated No. 1 seed, and on the other is a No. 10 seed that almost missed the College Football Playoff, and while the CFP National Championship odds have Indiana as more than a touchdown favorite, there's no shortage of storylines for this heavyweight clash.
With the college football national championship between Miami and Indiana slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., I'm breaking down everything we know ahead of the matchup.
📊 CFP National Championship odds: Miami vs. Indiana
See the latest college football odds for the national championship in real time.
🆚 Matchup breakdown - Miami vs. Indiana
Stay ahead with all of our college football picks for the national championship.
Miami offense vs. Indiana defense
This is the biggest disparity between these programs, and the reason the Hoosiers opened as a 7.5-point betting favorite at our best college football betting sites, with the line shifting further in their direction.
Indiana has an elite defense led by NFL talent at every level, while Miami's offense has been inconsistent throughout the season.
For as strong as the Hurricanes' offensive line is and as special as Malchi Toney is, QB Carson Beck has left a lot to be desired at times this season.
| Stat | Miami offense | Stat | Indiana defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ ranking | No. 20 | SP+ ranking | No. 2 |
| PPG | 31.6 | Point allowed per game | 11.1 |
| Yards per game | 409.2 | Yards allowed per game | 260.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.1 | Yards allowed per play | 4.6 |
| EPA per pass | No. 16 | EPA per pass | No. 29 |
| EPA per rush | No. 98 | EPA per pass | No. 23 |
| Early downs EPA/play | No. 47 | Early downs EPA/play | No. 15 |
| 3rd/4th down success | No. 24 | 3rd/4th down success | No. 17 |
| Turnover per game | 0.9 | Forced turnovers per game | 1.9 |
Indiana offense vs. Miami defense
Get your popcorn ready for this side of the matchup in the CFP National Championship. It's the Heisman Trophy winner and favorite to go No. 1 by the 2026 NFL Draft odds, Fernando Mendoza, against the top pass rush in the country. Led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, the Hurricanes lead the country in sacks (47).
However, this is the best offense Miami has faced this season, with Indiana having a quintet of NFL playmakers and a top-notch offensive line.
The key to a Miami cover, or outright win, will be if Bain and Mesidor can pressure Mendoza enough to disrupt the Hoosiers' offensive rhythm, something Oregon, Alabama, and Ohio State struggled with in recent weeks.
| Stat | Indiana offense | Stat | Miami defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ ranking | No. 2 | SP+ ranking | No. 6 |
| PPG | 42.6 | Point allowed per game | 14.0 |
| Yards per game | 461.0 | Yards allowed per game | 292.6 |
| Yards per play | 7.0 | Yards allowed per play | 4.7 |
| EPA per pass | No. 4 | EPA per pass | No. 14 |
| EPA per rush | No. 32 | EPA per pass | No. 79 |
| Early downs EPA/play | No. 16 | Early downs EPA/play | No. 33 |
| 3rd/4th down success | No. 1 | 3rd/4th down success | No. 7 |
| Turnover per game | 0.5 | Forced turnovers per game | 1.7 |
🏆 Key storylines entering the CFP National Championship
Quarterback spotlight
It's pretty clear which team has the better QB, which is why I took Indiana -7.5 in my Miami vs. Indiana predictions and early picks based on the opening odds. Beck is hard to trust, and while he's had key scrambles in the CFP, he's been mediocre at times.
He threw for fewer than 150 yards against both Texas A&M and Ohio State, and had a lower QBR than Trinidad Chambliss in the win over Ole Miss.
And if Indiana can get to him - the Hoosiers are second in the country in sacks (45) - Beck will make mistakes. He threw six interceptions across two losses this season.
Meanwhile, in five games against ranked opponents this season, Mendoza has yet to register a QBR below 89.6 while racking up 15 TD passes to just two interceptions.
| Carson Beck, Miami | Stat | Fernando Mendoza, Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 81.4 | QBR | 90.2 |
| 3,581 | Passing yards | 3,349 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 284 |
| 31 | Total TDs | 47 |
| 79.9% | Adjusted completion rate | 80.2% |
| 3.1% | Big-time throw rate | 6.6% |
| 10 | Turnover-worth plays | 11 |
Coaching edge
Although you have to give credit to Mario Cristobal for reviving this Miami program, questions remain about his ability to manage a tight game late. And they should after what happened against Georgia Tech last season.
Cristobal has a history of losing games Miami should win and choking in crunch time. That is not the case with Cignetti, who has just two losses since taking over at Indiana.
Those losses both came last season to the programs that played in the national championship, Ohio State and Notre Dame.
Cristobal has two losses this season alone to SMU and Louisville, two teams that combined to lose eight games. Neither of those teams is ranked top 20 by SP+; Indiana is ranked No. 1.
| Mario Cristobal, Miami | Stat | Curt Cignetti, Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 35-18 | Record with school | 26-2 |
| 97-78 | Career record | 145-37 |
| 29-11 | Record with school as favorite | 24-0 |
| 6-7 | Record with school as underdog | 2-2 |
📐 Betting angles to watch
Looking at this matchup purely from a football perspective, this is an ideal CFP National Championship matchup between a team that eviscerates everyone and a program that rises to the occasion against its toughest opponents. That's what makes it such a difficult matchup from a betting perspective.
Indiana is putting together a historic season and brings its best in its biggest games, covering in all five of its matchups against ranked opponents. The Hoosiers beat those ranked teams by an average score of 40 to 13, including outscoring their CFP opponents 94 to 25.
Miami is nowhere near as dominant, beating its seven ranked opponents by an average of 14 points per game. And that number is misleading, with three of Miami's ranked wins coming against teams that won't end the season ranked (South Florida, Florida State, and Pittsburgh).
But Miami has also been an underdog three times this season against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Ohio State and beat all three outright.
| Miami | Stat | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 13-2 | Record | 15-0 |
| 10-5 | ATS record | 10-5 |
| 7-5 | ATS record as favorite | 8-5 |
| 3-0 | ATS record as underdog | 2-0 |
| 7-0 | ATS record vs. Top 25 | 5-0 |
| 24-29 | ATS record under current HC | 19-9 |
| 6-9 | Over/Under record | 9-6 |
Early CFP National Championship betting insights
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Market | Bet percentage | Handle percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Miami ML | 50% | 25% |
| Indiana ML | 50% | 75% |
| Miami to cover | 14% | 12% |
| Indiana to cover | 86% | 88% |
| Over | 89% | 88% |
| Under | 11% | 12% |
The verdict: CFP National Championship score prediction
Indiana has been historically dominant this season and just dismantled an Oregon team that's ranked No. 4 by SP+. The Hoosiers have a more trustworthy head coach, a better QB, a better offense, a better defense, and even better special teams. That's why they're an 8.5-point betting favorite a week out.
While 8.5 points is a lot, Indiana has beaten its last two CFP opponents by an average of 34.5 points and has won by double digits in 12 of its 15 games this season. Miami isn't built to play from behind, and I don't trust Beck to rise to the occasion.
Cignetti and Mendoza are set to put the finishing touches on one of the most improbable runs in college football history.
Score prediction: Indiana 31, Miami 20
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