CFP National Championship MVP Predictions: Tonight's Best Bets & Long Shots
My CFP National Championship MVP predictions project Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza to cap off a fairy-tale season tonight.
Indiana enters the national championship as an 8-point betting favorite over Miami, with kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). While Mendoza is a heavy favorite in the CFP National Championship MVP odds to claim offensive honors, the race for defensive MVP remains wide open.
Looking to have a better understanding of how Miami and Indiana stack up? Dive into the CFP National Championship odds and storylines.
📊 CFP National Championship offensive MVP odds
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks for the CFP National Championship.
| Player, POS | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza, QB | Indiana | -270 | 72.97% |
| Carson Beck, QB | Miami | +650 | 13.33% |
| Mark Fletcher Jr., RB | Miami | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Malachi Toney, WR | Miami | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Elijah Sarratt, WR | Indiana | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Kaelon Black, RB | Indiana | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Charlie Becker, WR | Indiana | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Omar Cooper Jr., WR | Indiana | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Roman Hemby, RB | Indiana | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Keelan Marion, WR | Miami | +6000 | 1.64% |
💰 CFP National Championship offensive MVP best bet
Dive into the top betting markets for CFP the National Championship ahead of tonight's Miami vs. Indiana matchup.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (-270)
While Mendoza's odds are extremely short at our best college football betting sites, it's hard to go with any other player for offensive MVP. He's having one of the most memorable individual seasons in college football history, and leads the country in QBR (90.2) and TD passes (41).
I'm taking the Hoosiers to win big in my Miami vs. Indiana prediction, and if that happens, there's almost no way the Heisman winner and projected No. 1 pick doesn't bring home offensive MVP honors.
In the CFP thus far, he's thrown more TDs (8) than had incompletions (5).
🎯 CFP National Championship offensive MVP long shot
Prepare yourself for tonight's national championship by checking out our guide on how to bet Miami vs. Indiana.
Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana (+2200)
If Mendoza doesn't win offensive MVP, my best bet is that it goes to a wide receiver (Malachi Toney if Miami wins or Mendoza's best big game receiver, Elijah Sarratt). In Indiana's six biggest games, Sarratt has averaged 6.3 receptions for 86.3 receiving yards, with eight total TDs.
He's been dominant for the Hoosiers against their toughest opponents, which is why my Miami vs. Indiana player props focus on him for tonight's matchup.
Seven of the last nine offensive MVPs have gone to a QB, with a wide receiver taking it home once (DeVonta Smith in 2021).
📊 CFP National Championship defensive MVP odds
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for the CFP National Championship.
| Player, POS | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| D'Angelo Ponds, CB | Indiana | +650 | 13.33% |
| Aiden Fisher, LB | Indiana | +900 | 10% |
| Isaiah Jones, LB | Indiana | +900 | 10% |
| Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE | Miami | +900 | 10% |
| Amare Ferrell, SAF | Indiana | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Louis Moore, SAF | Indiana | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Mario Landino, DL | Indiana | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Rolijah Hardy, LB | Indiana | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Tyrique Tucker, IDL | Indiana | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Akheem Mesidor, EDGE | Miami | +1500 | 6.25% |
💰 CFP National Championship defensive MVP best bet
New to betting? Familiarize yourself before Miami vs. Indiana with the CFP betting terms for beginners.
Louis Moore, SAF, Indiana (+1000)
Since the beginning of the College Football Playoff for the 2014-2015 season, the CFP National Championship defensive MVP has gone to a defensive back in six out of 11 seasons.
That's why it's no surprise that All-American cornerback D'Angelo Ponds is the favorite, especially after his performance in the semifinal against Oregon. However, this award has been shockingly dominated by safeties, with the position accounting for four of the six DBs to take it home.
That's why I love betting on Moore, who leads a secondary that's among the CFP National Championship betting X-factors in interceptions (6).
🎯 CFP National Championship defensive MVP long shot
To get in on the CFP National Championship action at prediction markets, dive into our Miami vs. Indiana predictions.
Devan Boykin, DB, Indiana (+2200)
Indiana's secondary is among the best in the country, and the most underrated player on the back end is Devan Boykin. The NC State transfer is fourth on the Hoosiers in defensive stops (28), third in forced incompletions (5), and has the most TFLs among DBs (6).
Boykin is a versatile chess piece in Indiana's secondary, playing 65.3% of his snaps at nickel, 14.2% in the box, 10.3% at free safety, and 9.9% on the edge. That's because of his physicality and instincts, which will be key to slowing Malachi Toney.
Two of the last seven defensive MVPs were cornerbacks.
🤑 Miami vs. Indiana betting splits: CFP National Championship
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Bet type | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|
| Miami ML (+260) | 72% | 54% |
| Indiana ML (-235) | 28% | 46% |
| Miami +7.5 | 24% | 21% |
| Indiana -7.5 | 76% | 79% |
| Over 47.5 | 79% | 47% |
| Under 47.5 | 21% | 53% |
📺 How to watch Miami vs. Indiana: CFP National Championship
- Date: Monday, Jan. 19
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN
💡 Miami vs. Indiana expert picks
- Miami vs. Indiana prediction
- Miami vs. Indiana player props
- CFP National Championship odds & storylines
- Top betting markets for CFP National Championship
- CFP betting terms for beginners
- How to bet Miami vs. Indiana
- How Indiana will win CFP National Championship
- How Miami will win CFP National Championship
- CFP National Championship betting X-factors
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