CFP National Championship Betting X-Factors: 5 Players Who Could Decide Miami vs. Indiana

While Indiana's Fernando Mendoza and Miami's Carson Beck are two of the biggest names taking the field on Monday, I'm looking at five non-quarterbacks who will be CFP National Championship betting X-factors.

Despite Indiana being an 8.5-point betting favorite for the championship on Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., anything can happen in college football, especially if some of these X-factors step up.

Looking to have a better understanding of how Miami and Indiana stack up? Dive into the CFP National Championship odds and storylines.

🔥 CFP National Championship betting X-factors

🌴 Malachi Toney, WR, Miami

No player is more important to Miami's chances against Indiana than freshman Malachi Toney. In my breakdown of how Miami will win the CFP National Championship, I highlighted the Hurricanes' need to be aggressive with their passing attack.

To do that successfully, Toney needs to win after the catch and vertically. He's one of the most dynamic receivers in the sport, sitting No. 3 in the nation in YAC (738).

The bet: Toney to score 2+ TDs (+1200)

Toney is always a threat to score, with 10 total touchdowns this season. He's already found the end zone twice in the CFP and will likely need to find it twice more for the Hurricanes to have a shot at beating Indiana. He's scored multiple TDs in a game twice this season. 

🔴 Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana

There's no denying that Mendoza is the best QB in the country, but it certainly helps that he's throwing to a trio of future NFL receivers. Leading the way is Elijah Sarratt, with the senior being Mendoza's favorite back shoulder target.

Sarratt's size, body control, and chemistry with Mendoza are why he's always open, even when it doesn't look like it. Despite missing two games, he's racked up 802 receiving yards and 15 TDs on 62 receptions this season. He's going to be a challenging matchup for a banged-up Miami cornerback corps.

The bet: Sarratt 7+ receptions (+413)

When Indiana wins, it wins big, which I detailed in how to bet Miami vs. Indiana. That's because the Hoosiers don't relent when they get up and don't shy away from throwing the ball. That's why Sarratt has caught seven-plus passes in four of the Hoosiers' six biggest games this season, including in the semifinal win over Oregon.

🌴 Rueben Bain Jr./Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami

The biggest factor for how Indiana will win the CFP National Championship will come down to pass protection. Miami has made it this far because of a defense that's ranked No. 6 by SP+ and led by the country's best pass rushing duo, Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.

Both Bain (80) and Mesidor (63) rank in the top 10 in the country in pressures, and have combined for 19 sacks this season. They're both potential first-round picks in April and need to pressure Mendoza and force mistakes to keep this game close.

The bet: Fernando Mendoza Over 0.5 interceptions (+125)

Mendoza doesn't throw many interceptions. He has just six this season, and zero in the CFP thus far. But that's because he rarely gets pressured, with his teammates being credited with allowing just 4.5 pressures per game and seven sacks on the season. However, IU hasn't dealt with a duo like Bain and Mesidor.

🔴 Roman Hemby/Kaelon Black, RBs, Indiana

When the offense is led by a QB who is the favorite by the 2026 NFL Draft odds to go No. 1, the running game doesn't get nearly as much love. But as flashy as Mendoza and the Hoosiers' passing game is, they also have one of the best running back tandems in the country.

Roman Hemby (1,220) and Kaelon Black (997) are No. 1 and No. 2 in scrimmage yards for Indiana this season and have combined for 17 TDs. If they can take advantage of a Miami defense that misses tackles at an alarming rate, the Hurricanes don't stand a chance.

The bet: Hemby + Black TD SGP (+379)

Given Miami's issues with missed tackles, Hemby and Black could both create chunk runs after contact and end up finding the end zone. The pair has combined for four TDs in two CFP games, and both have scored in the same game twice in their last four outings.

🔴 Indiana secondary

There's a lot of deserved buzz around Mendoza and Indiana's offense, but the defense is just as good. The Hoosiers are ranked No. 2 on defense by SP+ and have NFL talent at every level, especially in the secondary. 

Miami's offense is the weak link in this game, specifically Carson Beck, who has looked pedestrian in two of three CFP games thus far. Now, he's taking on a defense that's starting safeties (Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell) have combined for 10 INTs, while its cornerbacks (D'Angelo Ponds and Devan Boykin) have been at their best in the Hoosiers' biggest games. 

The bet: Carson Beck 2+ interceptions (+300)

Indiana is seventh in the country in interceptions this season and has four future NFL players in its secondary. Beck has thrown 23 interceptions in the last two seasons and tends to come unraveled when Miami struggles. In the Hurricanes' two losses this season to Louisville and SMU, he combined for six interceptions.