SMU vs. BYU Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: New Mexico Bowl Set for a Shootout?

A pair of seven-win teams square off in the 2022 New Mexico Bowl with the SMU Mustangs taking on the BYU Cougars. Check out the top college football odds and our best college football picks for Saturday's New Mexico Bowl between SMU and BYU.

Entering the year, some felt that BYU (4-8 against the spread, 8-4 Over/Under) was capable of challenging for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. The Cougars ultimately fell well short of those lofty expectations, largely due to poor play by the defense. However, BYU was able to overcome a four-game losing skid to win its final three games and reach the postseason.

SMU (5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U) also endured a tough losing streak during the regular season. After losing four of five, the Mustangs flipped it around by winning four of their final five to secure bowl eligibility. The strong finish to the season included a three-point victory over Memphis in the finale. SMU’s offense piled up 40-plus points in six of the team’s seven wins.

Here is our pick for the New Mexico Bowl matchup between SMU and BYU (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our top college football bowl odds, picks, and predictions!

SMU vs. BYU Game Info

Date: Saturday, Dec. 17, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Weather: 35 degrees, 4.5% chance of precipitation, 10-11 mph winds N

SMU vs. BYU Odds

SMU vs. BYU Odds Analysis

The spread and Over/Under for this game have both swung drastically from the consensus opening lines. BYU opened as a 1-point favorite but the line has since shifted to SMU -4.5 as of late Saturday afternoon. Though the Mustangs have drawn just 48% of the tickets on the spread, those account for 58% of the betting handle.

The Over/Under has plummeted from 74 on the opening line to 65 in most spots as of Saturday afternoon. The Over has drawn 67% of the tickets but just 47% of the handle.

SMU vs. BYU Pick

Over 64.5 ★★★

For the most part, SMU’s offense hardly skipped a beat in the first-year under coach Rhett Lashlee. Of course, having a veteran quarterback like Tanner Mordecai certainly helps. The junior gunslinger finished 18th in the country in total passing yards for the season. At No. 21 on that same list, BYU’s Jaren Hall wasn’t far behind.

With Mordecai leading the way, SMU finished the year ranked 10th nationally in scoring offense at 37.8 points per game. There were only four games all season in which the Mustangs were held below the 30-point threshold. In two of those, they still finished with 27 points. BYU also averaged just over 30 points per game for the season.

For both teams, achieving high-scoring offensive outputs was a necessity this season. That’s because neither SMU nor BYU boast a reliable defense. The Cougars rank 94th in FBS in scoring defense by allowing 30.4 points per game. Meanwhile, the Mustangs finished as one of the 10 worst scoring defenses in the country after allowing 36.4 points per contest.

As both teams achieved top-25 rankings in adjusted offensive efficiency, one has to believe that the offenses will have the upper hand in a big way in this head-to-head matchup. What’s more, both teams love to take to the air which would seem to bode well for an offensive shootout.

Bettors should note that SMU will be without star wideout Rashee Rice in the bowl game due to injury. Despite this, the Over is still the preferred pick, especially given how the line has moved nine full points relative to the opener.

SMU vs. BYU Best Odds

DraftKings (-110)

After reaching a low-point of 64, it appears as though there is finally some buyback on the Over. With 64.5 representing the lowest available game total in the hours leading up to kickoff, bettors are advised to target FanDuel, presently the only sportsbook offering this line.

Given how far the line has already moved relative to the opening number of 73.5, it’s hard to believe that the market will go much lower than where it currently sits. While it’s unknown how much buy-back will ultimately transpire, those betting the Over have to feel good about firing on the current number considering that it has already moved nine full points.

SMU-BYU picks made 12/12/20 at 3 p.m. ET.

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