Buffalo vs. Ohio Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Get Ready For Midweek MACtion

College football Week 10 picks and predictions Buffalo vs Ohio on November 1.

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 31, 2022 7:30 AM EDT • 4 min read

November means the start of midweek MACtion, and we have a doozy on Tuesday night as the Ohio Bobcats host the Buffalo Bulls. Check out our Buffalo-Ohio picks.

The MAC East division title may be on the line in this Week 10 matchup, as Buffalo (5-3, 4-0) would open a two-game lead on Ohio (5-3, 3-1) with a victory.

Though Bowling Green is also in a good position at 3-1 in conference play, the Bulls own the head-to-head tiebreaker after their dominant 38-7 road victory over the Falcons three weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Bobcats aim to become the fifth different East division winner in the last six years and make their first MAC Championship Game appearance since 2016.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 10 game between Buffalo and Ohio (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Buffalo vs. Ohio Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 1, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Peden Stadium, Athens, OH
Weather: 64 degrees, 23% chance of precipitation, 7-mph W wind

Buffalo vs. Ohio Odds

Buffalo vs. Ohio Odds Analysis

Buffalo opened as a 1.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks but has been bet as high as -3 less than 24 hours after the opening number was revealed.

All sportsbooks are in unison with an Over/Under of 58.5.

Buffalo vs. Ohio Picks

Spread: Ohio +3 (-107 via PointsBet)
Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
Game Prop: First half Over (OFF)

Buffalo vs. Ohio ATS Pick

Ohio +3 (-107) ★★

The home team has won nine of the previous 10 matchups between these teams (and is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight), and each of the previous two (dating back to 2019) has been decided by one point.

When Buffalo started 3-0 in conference play, it did so for just the fourth time in program history. And though it has won by an average of 17.6 points during a five-game winning streak, Ohio will be no pushover at home and will defend its 4-0 record at Peden Stadium.

Buffalo ranks below average in offensive rushing explosiveness havoc rate (23%). In addition, Ohio is the more battle-tested team with non-conference games at Penn State and Iowa State, and those losses by a combined 89-20 should not skew the fact that the Bobcats have averaged 34 points per game in conference play.

Ohio has covered in all four of those games and is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games against teams with a winning record, and should cover once again on Tuesday.

Bobcats backers should head to PointsBet to make their wagers, as it is the only sportsbook offering a line as high as the key number of +3.

Buffalo vs. Ohio O/U Pick

Over 58.5 (-107) ★★★★

Buffalo and Ohio are two of four MAC teams averaging more than 30 points per game. Thus, we expect another high-scoring game between two of the conference's most talented offenses.

The Bulls create havoc plays on defense at a 28% rate, but, like Ohio, they rank much better in offensive SP+ than defensive SP+. Buffalo's offense is 84th compared to a 101st-ranked defense, while Ohio has a 79th vs. 124th-ranked split.

Bobcats quarterback Kurtis Rourke is the MAC's highest-rated passer and has a league-best 16:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Meanwhile, Buffalo is one of two MAC teams with two running backs with at least 487 yards rushing this year, and we expect the 1-2 punch of Ron Cook Jr. and Mike Washington to move the chains consistently for the Bulls.

Buffalo vs. Ohio Prop Pick

First half Over (OFF) ★★★

In addition to liking the full-game Over, we are also backing the first half Over. The Over has cashed in Buffalo's last five games against teams with a winning record and each of Ohio's last four such games.

The Over is also 5-2 in the previous seven meetings at Peden Stadium, and we expect Ohio's 119th-ranked scoring defense to be vulnerable early, with its offense keeping pace, as well.

There are no odds yet posted for this prop, but we would feel comfortable splitting the full-game total in half and laying slightly more than four touchdowns.

Where to Bet on Buffalo-Ohio Picks

Buffalo-Ohio picks made 10/31/2022 at 6:27 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”