Bowling Green vs. UMass Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 14 Betting Preview

UMass is still the only FBS team left in search of its first win of the season, and that narrative serves as the backdrop for my Bowling Green vs. UMass prediction.

The Falcons are the 14.5-point betting favorite for Tuesday's road game at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Mass. (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU). The Falcons have won games against the upper echelon of the conference, while the Minutemen appear to be playing out the string. That has me backing the road favorites as part of the college football Week 14 predictions.

✅ Bowling Green vs. UMass prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 14.

🏈 Bowling Green vs. UMass preview & score prediction

Bowling Green was being given a ton of respect last week as 3.5-point betting favorites against an Akron team that had two more conference wins at the time. But even though the Falcons squandered a second half lead in last week’s 19-16 loss, it is still not ripe to be upset by the worst FBS program.

Expect positive regression from Bowling Green offense

Since a shocking upset of Toledo, one of five MAC teams with two or fewer conference losses, Bowling Green has lost five straight games, while being held to six or fewer points twice.

In a 28-3 loss to Buffalo in its previous home game, Falcons quarterback Hunter Najm finished with a 36% completion percentage while averaging an average depth of target of 14.4 yards. Bowling Green also entered its last game generating a quality drive on fewer than 27% of its possessions, the seventh-worst rate among FBS teams.

But if UMass’ latest 42-14 loss to Ohio showed us anything, it’s that one does not necessarily need a complex or feared passing attack to score on the Minutemen. Ohio attempted just eight passes and threw for 28 total yards, but still managed 42 points on the strength of a running game that churned out 363 yards and 6.4 yards per carry.

Bowling Green has covered 61.1% of its road games since the 2023 season. Conversely, UMass is a poor 3-8 ATS this season, and has not covered any of its six games when playing on equal rest as its opponent.

Score prediction: Bowling Green 31, UMass 10 

🆚 Bowling Green vs. UMass matchup to watch

UMass offense vs. Bowling Green defense

Even if the Bowling Green offense continues to struggle as it has while averaging just 13.4 points during a five-game losing streak, the UMass offense is even worse.

The Minutemen snapped a streak of scoring fewer than two touchdowns in seven of eight games with a two-touchdown “breakout” in their last game against Ohio. 

But this is still a UMass team that entered that game ranked 128th in EPA/Rush and 135th in EPA/Pass, and managed only 215 total yards against the Bobcats. That is especially concerning, considering Ohio’s defense entered ranked 128th or worse early downs EPA allowed, available yards allowed, and EPA/Pass allowed. 

UMass also added special teams concerns to their list of flaws, missing two field goals in the first half last week. And with rain in the forecast for this game, that lowers the ceiling even more for the Minutemen offense.

Best prop bet: UMass team total Under 14.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

📊 Bowling Green vs. UMass odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 14.

📈 Bowling Green vs. UMass betting trends

🌤️ Bowling Green vs. UMass weather

Temperatures will be in the mid-40s in the early evening on Tuesday in Amherst, accompanied by a 55% chance of precipitation. The chance of precipitation increases to 70% in the evening. 

📺 How to watch Bowling Green vs. UMass

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 25
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium (Amherst, Mass.)
• TV: ESPNU