Boise State vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: College Football Week 1 Best Bets
Boise State travels to take on South Florida tonight, and my Boise State vs. South Florida prediction sees a ton of value in the home underdog.
It will take time for the Broncos, fresh off their first trip to the College Football Playoff and a 5.5-point betting favorite tonight, to move on without last year's Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty. As part of our college football predictions for Week 1, the Bulls and their quarterback Byrum Brown are live to shock Boise State in both teams' season opener.
Kickoff is slated for 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.
🏈 Boise State vs. South Florida expert picks
College football expert picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: South Florida (+180 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: South Florida +5.5 (+106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 61.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔮 Boise State vs. South Florida prediction & best bet today
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🔥 South Florida +5.5 (+106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Broncos’ fitness will be tested right away, as they travel across the country to play in temperatures expected to be in the 80s and humidity over 80%. They return numerous key pieces, including quarterback Maddux Madsen, but there is no replacing Jeanty. Transfer Malik Sherrod will do his best after rushing for 196 yards and 3.3 yards per carry in four games in 2024.
On the other side, Byrum Brown returns under center after an injury-shortened season. Though he threw only two touchdowns in five games, he rushed for 269 yards and three scores. Look for the dual-threat to keep his team in this game, as they cover the spread and possibly win.
FanDuel has the best odds for the 5.5-point spread, as they’re offering the Bulls for a price of +106. This implies a 48.54% chance they cover, with a $10 bet netting a potential $10.60 profit.
Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets
New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
💰 Best Boise State vs. South Florida player prop bet today
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Byrum Brown Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last season, Brown only threw for over 200 yards once in five games, but he rushed for at least 72 yards in his first three games of the year, including 108 against Alabama. In 2023, he rushed for 809 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per carry.
The Broncos finished last season allowing just 120.5 rushing yards per game, which ranked 27th in the nation. However, they allowed an average of 183 per game in their last three contests of 2024-25.
This total is set at 48.5 at our best sports betting apps, but FanDuel is offering a slightly better price than all the rest. Right now, a $10 wager at FanDuel would pay $8.77, as the current price of -114 suggests a 53.27% chance Brown hits this Over.
📊 Boise State vs. South Florida odds today: Week 1
College football odds update live in real time.
📈 Boise State vs. South Florida betting odds analysis
After all the success the Broncos had last season, it’s not surprising to see the public heavily favoring them to cover as favorites of less than a touchdown. Last season, the Bulls went just 7-6, with blowout losses against the only two ranked teams they played.
Yet, oddsmakers seem fairly confident in the Bulls in this game. Despite bettors backing the Broncos to cover, the spread has dropped from 9.5 to 5.5 at most best sports betting sites, with the number dropping by a full point in the last 24 hours. This signals that no matter what bettors do, this number isn’t going to hit the key number of 7.
Bettors are split on the total, which currently sits at 62.5. The Broncos averaged 35.8 points per game last season, but 30 of their offensive touchdowns belonged to Ashton Jeanty, who left for the NFL. If this number moves before kickoff, I expect it to drop.
📰 Boise State vs. South Florida storylines
- Quarterback Byrum Brown is back healthy for South Florida after missing eight games last season.
- QB Maddux Madsen is a major returnee for Boise State, which may have to rely on the passing game more without the departed Ashton Jeanty.
- Both teams leaned on their respective offense in 2024, with South Florida ranking 33rd nationally in yards per game and Boise State ranking eighth.
🚑 Boise State vs. South Florida injuries
🔢 Boise State vs. South Florida updated betting insights
- Boise State opened as 9.5-point betting favorites. That line has since decreased to 5.5 points
- 66% of bets are on Boise State to cover
- The total opened at 63.5 points. It has since decreased to 62.5
- 52% of bets are on the Under
📺 Boise State vs. South Florida game info today
- When: Thursday, Aug. 28
- Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
- How to watch: ESPN
💡 Expert college football predictions today
- College football predictions today
- Boise State vs. South Florida prediction
- Nebraska vs. Cincinnati prediction
❓ Boise State vs. South Florida FAQs
Who is the favorite to win Boise State vs. South Florida?
Boise State is favored by 5.5 points to beat South Florida.
How do college football spread odds work?
When betting on college football, the favorite needs to win by a certain number of points to cover the "point spread" - also known as the betting line. Conversely, the underdog needs to lose by fewer than the points displayed in the spread or win outright to cash. For example, a 3-point favorite would need to win by more than a field goal to reward bettors.
How do college football moneyline odds work?
When betting on college football, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
