Boise State vs. Notre Dame Prediction: College Football Early Picks & Betting Odds

Our Boise State vs. Notre Dame prediction analyzes how the market has moved - and how bettors can take advantage. 

We look at the opening odds for this matchup, with kickoff at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Ind., set for 3:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) on Saturday. Notre Dame has gone from a -16.5 betting favorite to -19.5, but the total is where we're looking for our college football picks.

Our college football predictions for Week 6 feature more early picks, so you can find edges before the lines move.

🏈 Early Boise State vs. Notre Dame prediction & best bet

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football predictions for Week 6.

⬇️  Under 65.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

We lost the Under for Notre Dame vs. Arkansas last week, but maybe we were just a week early. Arkansas failed to tackle. Routine screen plays turned into chunk plays as quarterback CJ Carr threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Every single Notre Dame receiver with at least one reception had one go for no fewer than 20 yards.

But while the offense scored 56 points, the defense - which got some key pieces back - held Arkansas to 13 points.

On the other side, Boise State has bounced back from an opening loss to South Florida and now sits at 3-1. That hasn’t come easily, however. Quarterback Maddux Madsen, who added a bit of juice to the offense last year, suffered a lower-body injury early in the year and has -14 rushing yards across the last two contests.

He was able to cook Appalachian State as a pure pocket passer last week, but I’m skeptical he can do that against this Notre Dame secondary.

The total for Saturday’s game opened at 53.5, but it has ballooned as high as 65.5, depending on your book. While the Irish offense certainly deserves credit, the defense does, too. The current odds imply Notre Dame will score 42.5 points while allowing 23 to Boise State. I can’t get to those numbers. The Irish are 103rd in seconds per play (28.1) and should be able to work the clock with an elite running back tandem and solid offensive line.

The market has overcorrected the total for Saturday’s game, so lock the Under 65.5 in for -115 (53.5%) to score an $8.70 profit at BetMGM.

📊 Boise State vs. Notre Dame odds: Week 6

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📈 Boise State vs. Notre Dame opening odds

• Moneyline: Boise State +650 | Notre Dame -1000
• Spread: Boise State +16.5 (-110) | Notre Dame -16.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)

🔍 Boise State vs. Notre Dame odds analysis

The spread for Saturday’s Boise State vs. Notre Dame game has widened by a healthy margin. Boise State’s disappointing loss to USF in the opener raised some serious red flags with this team, and now Notre Dame is getting an extra field goal. The Irish started slowly, too, but their losses look more like quality losses each week. With the current number at 19.5, don’t be surprised if this spread gets out to just under 21.

Likewise, the total for this game has shifted significantly as well. Disappointing defensive performances from both sides to start the year – and some solid offensive ones – have pushed it up from 53.5 to, at some places, 65.5. Individually, Notre Dame’s implied total is up from 35 to 42.5 while Boise State’s is up from 18.5 to 23. I doubt this total stays so high as gameday approaches, and while getting 65.5 is excellent, I can justify betting the Under down to 62.5.

📺 How to watch Boise State vs. Notre Dame

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.)
• TV: NBC/Peacock