Boise State vs. Nevada Prediction, Picks & Odds: Who'll Win in College Football Week 9?

With plenty of weekday action in store, I’m here to provide my Boise State vs. Nevada prediction and picks as the college football picks series continues.

The game will get underway at 10 p.m. ET (CBSSN) on Friday, Oct. 24, from Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nev. Boise State is a massive 21.5-point betting favorite, and I'm backing the underdogs to cover in the analysis below, part of the college football predictions for Week 9.

🏈 Boise State vs. Nevada prediction

College football picks for Week 9; odds subject to change.

• Game prediction: Nevada +21.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 (-115 via BetMGM ) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Boise State vs. Nevada?

Boise State may not be as good as it was last year, but Nevada is a bottom-6 team in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and a bottom-10 team in ESPN’s FPI.

✅ Best Boise State vs. Nevada bet

🐺 Nevada +21.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

The Nevada Wolf Pack are 21.5-point home underdogs for good reason. This team is 1-6, and its sole win came by a field goal against FCS Sacramento State. But prospective Nevada backers can take solace in the fact that the team is 3-4 against the spread (ATS) despite its average margin of -12.4.

Boise State entered the year with big hopes after last year’s college football playoff bid, but the brutal opening loss to USF soured most opinions quickly. Perhaps too quickly.

Since that game, Boise State has an impressive 6-0 ATS record. However, at least against FBS opponents, the Broncos haven’t had to cover a spread of more than 16 points. 

The Wolf Pack can keep it close

I trust Nevada to cover for three reasons: its (new) quarterback, its defense, and Boise State’s inability to stop explosive plays.

Nevada recently turned to QB Carter Jones, whose passing efficiency score (128.4) paces the team and marks a massive upgrade over Chubba Purdy, who had thrown one touchdown to eight interceptions. He should only continue to improve with more experience.

The Nevada defense isn’t great, but it’s competitive, losing three one-possession games, all of which were settled by a field goal or less. The defense held opposing teams to an impressively low success rate of 25% on passing downs and ranks 71st in yards allowed per play (5.6).

Finally, Boise State’s defense has is a bottom-10 unit in explosiveness allowed and ranks 85th in yards allowed per play (5.7). Back the Wolf Pack +21.5 for -110 (52.4%) at BetMGM to score a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.

⚖️ Boise State vs. Nevada score prediction: Boise State 27-Nevada 17

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ Under 51.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

While Boise State should win, it probably won’t win big against a respectable Nevada defense. Neither team is built to score quickly – Boise State ranks 82nd in seconds per play (26.9) and 67th in rushing play percentage (51.8%), while Nevada ranks 109th in the former metric (28.3) and 49th in the latter (54.4%).

Boise State is 5-2 to the Over this year, but Nevada is 5-2 to the Under. However, the Broncos on the road drop to 1-2 to the Over. Nevada sits at 2-1 to the Under when playing in Reno. Boise State should have to settle for field goals, and not even a few explosives from Nevada will push this beyond the 51.5-point threshold.

Lock in the Under 51.5 for -115 (53.5%) at BetMGM to score an $8.70 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 Boise State vs. Nevada odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Boise State vs. Nevada

• Date: Friday, Oct. 24
• Kickoff: 10 p.m. ET
• Where: Mackay Stadium (Reno, Nev.)
• TV: CBSSN