Big Ten Best Bets for Week 10: Big Ten Predictions, ATS Picks & Player Props

Big Ten teams make up half of the AP top-6, and I make my best Big Ten best bets for Saturday’s six-game conference slate.

Among my four-pack of picks is my best ATS and O/U plays from the Big Ten slate, and I add two player props involving the conference’s quarterbacks to my college football Week 10 predictions.

🏈 Big Ten best bets & expert picks: Week 10

See all of our experts' college football picks this week based on the latest college football odds for Week 10.

• Penn State +21 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Michigan State-Minnesota Under 44.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Fernando Mendoza Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Dylan Raiola longest pass completion Under 41.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best Big Ten predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

🦁  Penn State +21 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

It is amazing to see how different this high-profile matchup between Penn State and No. 1 Ohio State is viewed now relative to preseason expectations. The Buckeyes were 3.5-point favorites according to preseason projections, but are now a three-touchdown betting favorite after Penn State fired its head coach and quarterback Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury.

This is a classic betting mismatch between the best ATS team in Ohio State (6-0-1 ATS) and one of the worst in Penn State, who has covered the spread in six of its seven games. However, those trends have already been factored into this line, so I am making the contrarian play with Penn State.

The underdog has covered the spread in each of Penn State’s last eight games, including when the Nittany Lions covered a three-point spread in a near road upset of Iowa in their last game.

I am making this wager at DraftKings, the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a spread at the key number of 21, rather than 20.5 like every other market. That makes its -115 price at 53.49% implied odds worth paying up for, and a $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits if Penn State covers.

⬇️  Michigan State-Minnesota Under 44.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between Michigan State and Minnesota. And in the two most recent meetings in 2022 and 2023, the games have stayed under the projected total by nearly six points on average.

This play bucks the trend that the Over has cashed in each of Michigan State’s last eight games as an underdog. But Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles has been under duress all season and was sacked four more times last week. 

Meanwhile, Michigan knew the advantages it had in the trenches and pounded its rival with 49 rush attempts to 17 pass attempts. Minnesota has attempted more runs than passes this season, and its usually run-happy head coach P.J. Fleck will not mind grinding out a ground-and-pound win on a chilly afternoon in Minneapolis.

💰 Best Big Ten player prop bets for Week 10

⬆️  Fernando Mendoza Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-108) ⭐⭐⭐

No. 2 Indiana will be favored to win the remaining four games on its schedule and cruise to a Big Ten Championship appearance at 12-0. At that point, it will likely be playing for the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, with its playoff berth already sewn up.

In the meantime, I expect head coach Curt Cignetti to work on building his quarterback’s Heisman Trophy resume. 

Mendoza entered the last game against UCLA with 23 total touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 76.7% completion percentage over the previous six. Not much was needed of him in a 56-6 rout of UCLA last week, but he did still throw for three touchdowns on a modest 22 pass attempts.

The Terrapins defense entered their last game ranked 33rd in red-zone scoring rate and 17th in yards per pass allowed. But Cignetti won’t miss an opportunity to pad his quarterback’s stats, and Mendoza would have a great chance of going over this projected total for the sixth time in the last eight games if Maryland is competitive early.

FanDuel is the only of our best sports betting apps charging less than the standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds to back the Over. Its -108 odds would net a nice return of $9.26 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

⬇️  Dylan Raiola longest pass completion Under 41.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

My most confident Big Ten player prop wager is for Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola not to complete any pass for 42-plus yards against USC’s defense.

Nebraska’s quarterbacks collectively rank second in the country in completion percentage (behind Ohio State’s) at 74%. But lately, Raiola has been making his living on the intermediate passing game, as he has completed just 10% of his passes of 15 or more air yards over the last two games.

No. 23 USC also has the second-best red zone defense in the country, so I would not put anyone off backing the Under on Raiola’s 1.5 passing touchdowns. But I love the contrarian nature of this play, given Raiola’s recent inefficiencies on deep balls, even if he has at least one 42-yard completion or better in four of five conference games.

bet365’s -115 odds carry a 53.49% implied probability and would net $8.70 on a $10 wager if Raiola’s longest pass completion is 41 or fewer yards.