Baylor vs. Air Force Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Can the Bears Bounce Back in AF Bowl?

The Baylor Bears will square off with the Air Force Falcons in the Armed Forces Bowl. Can the Falcons make a clean sweep of service academy-related glory? Read on for our top Baylor vs. Air Force pick.

After securing the Commander in Chief’s Trophy for the first time since 2016, Air Force (9-3) now heads to the Armed Forces Bowl. Baylor (6-6) bears the weight of a disappointing finish after the Bears lost their final three regular season games. 

Here is our best Baylor vs. Air Force college football Armed Forces Bowl pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Baylor vs. Air Force Game Info

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 22, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
• Weather: 20 degrees, 0% Precipitation, 23-mph winds

Baylor vs. Air Force Odds

Baylor vs. Air Force Odds Analysis

Baylor opened as an 8.5-point favorite before the line shifted down to -4 at most sportsbooks. The number now commonly sits at 3.5, with Air Force getting 71% of the cash and 56% of the tickets.

The total opened at 47 and dropped several points down to between 43 and 43.5 across our affiliated sportsbooks. The Under is attracting 71% of the cash and 56% of the tickets.

Baylor vs. Air Force Pick

Baylor -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Air Force won nine games on the strength of three things: ball control, service academy grit and absolutely abhorrent opposing offenses. I just can’t place much stock in the Falcons’ top-ranked defensive scoring average (12.9 points per game) given the poor offenses they faced on a weekly basis.

Here are the offensive efficiency rankings for the 11 FBS opponents from Air Force’s schedule in 2022: 128th, 112th, 126th, 104th, 107th, 103rd, 82nd, 65th, 131st, 130th, 117th. For reference, four of college football's six worst offenses played against Air Force. 

Baylor averages 30.4 PPG and ranks an NCAAF 24th in offensive efficiency. Though motivation for an underachieving Power Five program is always tricky in bowl matchups, it’s overwhelming how far superior Baylor should be compared to Air Force.

Defensively, Air Force ranks four spots higher in efficiency (42nd to Baylor’s 46th), but that ranking feels flimsy since Army was the most efficient offense Air Force faced all year.

Although it’s a little spooky that the line shifted by 5 points in our favor in game's lead-up, count it as a gift. The Bears should have the majority of their starting O-line ready for the bowl, and the smaller point spread provides some extra wiggle room if Baylor’s motivation is lacking.

Baylor vs. Air Force Best Odds

FanDuel: Baylor -3.5 (-112)

Four of our five affiliated sportsbooks check in with the spread at Baylor -4. Though it’s not the best number, you’ll find standard -110 odds on the play at DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars. PointsBet has the most favorable odds at -105--but you can do better than their line of Baylor -4.

FanDuel went rogue, posting the Bears at -3.5 instead of -4. You’re paying a bit more juice to -112, but that’s a worthwhile price to buy a half-point and stay away from a push on the numerous scenarios where this game lands with a four-point margin.

Baylor-Air Force pick made 12/21/2022 at 12:27 a.m. ET.

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