Army vs. Navy Prediction: Early Picks, Odds & Best Bet

In one of college football's most prestigious games, the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy is on the line, and my Army vs. Navy prediction and early picks expect the Midshipmen to retain the trophy after shocking the Black Knights last season.

Navy is a 6-point betting favorite for Saturday's 3 p.m. ET (CBS) matchup from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, and my college football predictions expect Blake Horvath to close out his career at the Naval Academy with another marquee win over his rival.

Early Army vs. Navy prediction: 2025 Commander-in-Chief's Trophy

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for every bowl game.

Navy -6 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last season, when these two programs played for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, Army was 11-1 and coming off an American Conference Championship win. The Black Knights entered the matchup as a 6.5-point betting favorite before getting thrashed by Horvath and Co., 31-13. Could Army do the same to Navy this time around?

Most years, I'd take Army to keep it close with no team in the country being better prepared to slow the triple-option than a service academy that runs it, but Jeff Monken's team has been sporadic this season. The Black Knights' last four games came against programs that are a combined 19-29, and they went just 2-2 ATS in those matchups.

Meanwhile, Navy is ranked No. 27 in offensive SP+ with Horvath leading one of the Group of Six's most potent offenses. He, along with Eli Heidenreich and Alex Tecza, shouldn't have trouble outpacing an Army team ranked No. 102 in offensive SP+.

Navy has been at its best as of late, winning outright as an underdog against Memphis and South Florida - two teams that had CFP aspirations - and the Midshipmen's high-powered offense should help them cover for a third straight game. If Brian Newberry's team wins by at least a touchdown (52.38% probability), a $10 bet at bet365 pays a $9.09 profit.

Live Army vs. Navy odds: Commander-in-Chief's Trophy

See the latest college football odds for every college football game in real time.

Army vs. Navy opening odds

• Moneyline: Army +165 | Navy -200
• Spread: Army +4.5 (-110) | Navy -4.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)

Army vs. Navy line movement

Last year, Army opened as just a 2.5-point betting favorite against Navy before massive line movement led to the Black Knights being a 6.5-point favorite by kickoff. This year's matchup could be similar, with Navy opening as a 4.5-point favorite at our best college football betting sites and the line already moving to -6.5. The public is all over the Midshipmen, with 84.6% of bets and 91.4% of handle on Navy. Given the early action, I could see Navy being -8.5 by Saturday afternoon. 

As for the game total, it opened at 39.5 and hasn't moved, with 53.8% of bets and 77.7% of handle on the Under. And while there is a history of service academy games hitting the Under, this one hit the Over last season and I expect it to again. I'd take Navy up to -7.5 and the Over as long as the game total stays below 45.5.

Army vs. Navy trends & betting notes: Commander-in-Chief's Trophy

Check out all of our college football analysis and betting advice for Army-Navy and every bowl game.

• Navy is just 4-7 ATS, but has covered in two straight against teams that are a combined 17-7 this season
• Army is 5-6 ATS and 3-4 ATS in American Conference play
• The Midshipmen are 8-3 betting the Over this season, and haven't had a game total lower than 46
• The Black Knights are 4-7 betting the Over, but have hit it in two straight

How to watch Army vs. Navy: 2025 Commander-in-Chief's Trophy

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 13
• Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
• TV: CBS