Arizona vs. SMU Predictions & Odds | 2026 Holiday Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
In a matchup considered to be one of the most evenly matched of bowl season, my Arizona vs. SMU predictions are backing the better defense to pull out a win in the Holiday Bowl.
Tonight's 8 p.m. ET (FOX) Holiday Bowl matchup from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego is the final matchup of our college bowl game predictions.
Stay ahead this bowl season with our updated college football bowl game odds and schedule.
🏈 Arizona vs. SMU predictions: 2026 Holiday Bowl
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks for every bowl game.
| Predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona ML | -105 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ismail Mahdi anytime TD | +105 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Arizona vs. SMU best bet
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for every bowl game.
Arizona ML (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
While Arizona is ranked No. 23 by SP+ and SMU is ranked No. 24, the difference should be the Wildcats' pass defense. Arizona allows the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the country (155.9).
That makes this a difficult matchup for an SMU team that leans on QB Kevin Jennings' arm to make up for a run game that was middling in the ACC this season.
And the Wildcats have an efficient enough offense, ranked No. 15 in the nation in quality drive rate, to score enough to win thanks to QB Noah Fifita.
Score prediction: Arizona 24, SMU 23
🙌 Best Arizona vs. SMU touchdown pick: Holiday Bowl
Search the best college football player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.
Ismail Mahdi, RB, Arizona: Anytime TD (+105) ⭐⭐⭐
This game lacks for superstars on offense, but Arizona does have one of the most explosive running backs in the country in Ismail Mahdi.
The Texas State transfer has been the Wildcats' most consistent playmaker this season, leading the team in both touches (136) and yards from scrimmage (887).
Mahdi's speed is his biggest asset, with him ranking top 20 in the Power Four in 15-plus-yard runs (13) and top 10 in breakaway rate (48.5%).
That big-play ability has helped him score in three of his last five games, and 23 times in his career.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Holiday Bowl
Can't keep track of which top players are suiting up this bowl season? Bookmark our college football opt-out tracker for the latest updates on every bowl game.
| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treydan Stukes, Arizona | DB | Allowing 35.9 NFL QB rating in coverage | Round 3-5 |
| PJ Williams, SMU | OT | 2 sacks, 15 pressures allowed | Round 4-6 |
| Isaiah Smith, SMU | EDGE | 17.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks | Round 4-6 |
| Ahmaad Moses, SMU | SAF | 5.5 TFLs, 5 INTs | Round 4-6 |
| Isaiah Nwokobia, SMU | SAF | 80 tackles, 7 PBUs | Round 4-6 |
| Dalton Johnson, Arizona | SAF | 97 tackles, 4 INTs | Round 4-6 |
| Ismail Mahdi, Arizona | RB | 887 scrimmage yards, 5 TDs | Round 6-UDFA |
📊 Live Arizona vs. SMU odds: Holiday Bowl
Arizona vs. SMU opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -150 | SMU +125
- Spread: Arizona -3 (-105) | SMU +3 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
📈 Arizona vs. SMU betting trends
| Arizona | Statistic | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 8-4 | ATS record | 5-7 |
| 4-8 | O/U record | 4-8 |
| 5.9 | Yards per play | 6.3 |
| 4.6 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2 |
| +1.3 | Turnover margin | +1.0 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 23-7 vs. Arizona State | Previous result | L, 38-35 vs. California |
📺 How to watch Arizona vs. SMU: Holiday Bowl
- Date: Friday, Jan. 2
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
- TV: FOX
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
