Arizona State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Picks Tonight: Bears Sic ‘Em and Cover
A thrilling Week 4 slate of college football action is upon us, and we’re here to make our Arizona State vs. Baylor prediction as our college football picks series continues. The action is scheduled for tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET from McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas.
Baylor is a 2.5-point betting favorite for this game after opening at 4.5. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football predictions for Week 4, including my best player prop for Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt.
🏈 Arizona State vs. Baylor prediction to win
College football expert odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Baylor ML (-135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Baylor -2.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 59.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Arizona State vs. Baylor best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐻 Baylor -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
How often do quarterbacks start their seasons by throwing for 400-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns in back-to-back games? That’s what Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson did this year, and he now gets to face an Arizona State defense that allowed 279 passing yards (on 8.5 yards per pass attempt) to Mississippi State and Blake Shapen. The Sun Devils rank 58th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7).
Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham got a ton out of this roster last year, but I’m not buying that as a sustainable trend. His quarterback, Sam Leavitt, is down to a 121.8 passing efficiency score this year after posting a 150.2 last season. Leavitt didn’t even look good versus FCS Northern Arizona in the home opener – he threw an interception and posted a bad 131.3 passing efficiency score.
The spread of 2.5 suggests that this is a pick ’em on a neutral site. That gives way too much credit to an Arizona State squad that seems to have regressed year-over-year and clearly misses Cam Skattebo. It also doesn’t give enough credit to Baylor, especially after their gritty road win over SMU.
With the Bears averaging a full yard per play more than the Sun Devils, I’m betting on them to cover the 2.5-point spread for -110 (52.4%) at FanDuel to score a $9.09 profit from a $10 bet.
💰 Best Arizona State vs. Baylor player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🔥 Sam Leavitt anytime touchdown scorer (+110) ⭐⭐⭐
While I have a ton of faith in Baylor to win and cover, the Bears’ defense did show a key weakness we’ll hope to exploit with this line. Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold ran for a whopping 137 yards and two scores in Baylor’s home opener, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arizona State look to replicate that path to success.
Leavitt isn’t the most mobile quarterback, but he can still make plays on the ground. He has 157 rushing yards and three scores to his name already this season. Last year, he tallied 443 rushing yards and five scores. With last year’s star running back, Cam Skattebo, now in the NFL, it makes sense that Leavitt would be getting some more run as, well, a rusher.
Back Leavitt to find the end zone for +110 (47.6%) at FanDuel to score an $11 profit on a $10 bet. His rushing yardage prop is in the high 30s to low 40s depending on the book you choose, which isn’t a bad play, but I’d rather back him to score a touchdown to avoid the risk of him losing yards from sacks generated by the Baylor defensive front.
📊 Arizona State vs. Baylor odds: Week 4
Arizona State vs. Baylor odds update live in real time.
📈 Arizona State vs. Baylor opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona State +152 | Baylor -184
- Spread: Arizona State +4.5 (-112) | Baylor -4.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (-110) | Under 59.5 (-112)
🔍 Arizona State vs. Baylor odds analysis
The Arizona State vs. Baylor odds have moved around by a healthy amount. Sharp money bid the spread down from Baylor -4.5 to Baylor -2.5, but I believe that money is giving far more credit to Arizona State than is warranted. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this tick back up to Baylor -3 before kickoff.
Unlike the spread for Arizona State vs. Baylor, the total hasn’t budged. It opened at 59.5, and that’s right where it sits at the moment. I don’t anticipate any sudden line movement here after the number has stayed pat all week.
🔢 Arizona State vs. Baylor key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Arizona State | Statistic (per game) | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| 30.7 | Points | 38 |
| 19.3 | Points allowed | 30 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
| 175.7 | Passing yards | 368 |
| 232.3 | Rushing yards | 149.3 |
| 235 | Passing yards allowed | 167.7 |
| 91.3 | Rushing yards allowed | 188.3 |
| 5.3 | Net yards per play | 6.3 |
📺 Arizona State vs. Baylor game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 20
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: McLane Stadium (Waco, Texas)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ Arizona State vs. Baylor FAQs
Who is favored to win Arizona State vs. Baylor?
Baylor is a slight betting favorite (after opening as a bigger one) to win the Arizona State vs. Baylor game.
What is the spread for Arizona State vs. Baylor?
The Arizona State vs. Baylor spread sits at Baylor -2.5 after opening at Baylor -4.5.
What is the Over/Under for Arizona State vs. Baylor?
The Over/Under for Saturday’s Arizona State vs. Baylor game sits at 59.5, which is right where it opened.
What are the best bets for Arizona State vs. Baylor?
The best bets for Arizona State vs. Baylor are Baylor -2.5 and Sam Leavitt anytime touchdown.
When is the Arizona State vs. Baylor game?
Saturday’s Arizona State vs. Baylor game will get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX).
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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