Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction: 2025 College Football Playoff Odds & Best Bet

My best Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction and early picks based on the opening odds for their College Football Playoff first-round game focus on the defensive strengths of both teams. No. 9 Alabama is a 1.5-point betting favorite over No. 8 Oklahoma ahead of kickoff on Friday at Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., at 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN).

My college football predictions highlight why the total for this game is a better play than the spread, as both teams struggle a bit offensively entering the game.

Stay ahead this bowl season with our updated college football bowl game odds and schedule.

🏈 Early Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: CFP first round

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for every bowl game.

Under 40.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

These two teams combined for 44 points when they met in early November. However, these teams enter with two of the best defenses in the nation: Oklahoma allows just 13.9 points per game (7th), and Alabama allows just 17.4 (12th).

While Alabama is averaging 31.2 points per game, the offense has not looked great down the stretch, scoring 27 or fewer in its last four games against SEC opponents. There are rumors that quarterback Ty Simpson has been playing with a back injury, as reported by Yahoo! Sports, which could explain three of his four worst passing performances coming in his last three games.

Oklahoma is averaging just 21.5 points against SEC teams. The Sooners have scored just 17 in back-to-back games. BetMGM’s price of -110 implies a 52.38% chance that the Under hits. A $10 bet would profit $9.09.

📊 Live Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds: CFP Round 1

See the latest college football odds for every bowl game in real time.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma opening odds

• Moneyline: Alabama -105 | Oklahoma -115
• Spread: Alabama +1.5 (-115) | Oklahoma -1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

Alabama vs. Oklahoma line movement

There has been a lot of line movement at the best sports betting sites. Alabama opened as small underdogs, and now they’re favored by 1 or 1.5. I expect the spread to continue to favor them, even though they lost at home to Oklahoma earlier this year, mainly because of Oklahoma’s offensive struggles.

As for the total, the number has dropped a full field goal at every major sportsbook. With both offenses struggling down the stretch, and the Under hitting in 83.33% of Oklahoma games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this dip into the 30s. I wouldn’t play it any lower than 38.5.

📈 Alabama vs. Oklahoma trends & betting notes: CFP Round 1

Check out all of our college football analysis and betting advice for bowl season.

• The Under is 10-2 in Oklahoma games this season
• The Under has hit in five consecutive Alabama games
• Oklahoma is 2-1 against the spread as underdogs, with one cover coming as 6.5-point underdogs against Alabama
• Alabama is 2-3 against the spread on the road

📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Oklahoma: 2025 College Football Playoff

• Date: Friday, Dec. 19
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Memorial Stadium (Norman, Okla.)
• TV: ABC/ESPN