Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 7

My Alabama vs. Missouri prediction anticipates the David vs. Goliath narrative falling by the wayside as the college football world realizes the quality of Mizzou’s roster under Eli Drinkwitz this season.

My college football picks for this matchup include an outright win for the Tigers as a home underdog. But contrary to our game prediction, we’ll carry on our college football predictions for Week 7 by identifying an edge on the passing prop for Alabama QB Ty Simpson.

The action for Alabama vs. Missouri kicks off from Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Mo., Saturday at noon ET (ABC).

🏈 Alabama vs. Missouri prediction

College football expert picks for Week 7 odds subject to change.

• Game prediction: Missouri ML (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Ty Simpson Over 285.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Alabama vs. Missouri?

I’ve got Missouri winning this matchup as a home underdog. The Tigers are 3-2 ATS and have covered by an average margin of 5.4 points per game. While mitigating Alabama’s top-ranked turnover differential will be essential to a win, Missouri will look to ride its elite run game in order to shorten the proceedings against the explosive Crimson Tide offense.

We still expect the Alabama passing game to find openings in Missouri’s pass defense to put points on the board, but Ahmad Hardy can announce himself as a Heisman Trophy contender by putting the team on his back in this matchup.

Prediction: Missouri 30, Alabama 24

✅ Alabama vs. Missouri best bet

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐯 Missouri ML (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Missouri averages 310.3 yards per game on the ground, tops in the nation. It’s a mark that hasn’t faded against power conference defenses South Carolina (285 yards) and Kansas (334 yards). Alabama’s run defense permits 155.4 yards rushing per game and ranks 13th in the SEC in the category.

While Vanderbilt abandoned the run game in the second half against Alabama (aside from Diego Pavia scrambling), Missouri knows that its bread and butter is the two-headed ground attack of Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts.

The best odds on Missouri moneyline comes from Caesars and bet365 at +140 from both establishments. The implied probability at those odds is 41.67%. A winning $10 wager on this bet would profit $14.00.

💰 Best Alabama vs. Missouri player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Ty Simpson Over 285.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though I’ve got Missouri to win the game, Alabama’s passing offense will have an edge over the Tigers’ secondary. Though Missouri ranks 9th nationally in pass defense (158.5 yards per game against), it’s been a different story for the two games in which Missouri has faced legitimate opposing offenses.

LaNorris Sellers logged 302 passing yards against the Tigers. Ty Simpson is a comparable adversary—and arguably an even more capable one. The Tigers have struggled particularly in zone coverage, and Simpson has been electric in dicing up Cover 2. 

Simpson has logged 340+ yards in two of his past three games. FanDuel and Caesars have the best line and odds combo on this prop (-114 odds on Over 285.5 yards) at publish time. The implied probability at those odds is 53.27%. A winning $10 wager on this prop would profit $8.77.

📊 Alabama vs. Missouri odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Missouri: Week 7

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium (Columbia, Mo.)
• TV: ABC