Best Alabama vs. Missouri Player Prop Bets Today: Hardy to Run Wild
Our college football predictions for Week 7 continue with my best Alabama vs. Missouri player props for today's showdown between top 15 teams at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Mo. (noon ET, ABC).
The visiting Crimson Tide, who are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against Missouri since the latter joined the SEC, are a consensus 3-point betting favorite. And my college football picks for this marquee matchup are targeting the star players for each team - Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy - as well as top Crimson Tide running back Jam Miller.
🏈 Alabama vs. Missouri player prop bets
College football player prop bets for Week 7; odds subject to change.
- Ahmad Hardy Over 91.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jam Miller Under 67.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Ty Simpson Over 1.5 passing TDs (-160 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
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💰 Best Alabama vs. Missouri player prop picks
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Ahmad Hardy Over 91.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
James Madison, Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech, Fresno State - these are among the 88 FBS schools that have been stingier against the run than Alabama, which yields 155.4 rushing yards per game. Missouri’s offense? It averages 292 rushing yards, third best in the nation. The bell cow for the Tigers’ running game, Ahmad Hardy, enters Week 7 with an FBS-best 730 rushing yards (7.1 per carry).
Not only has Hardy hit triple digits in his first five games with Mizzou, but the UL Monroe transfer has reached that milestone in 11 of his last 12 starts (and seven in a row). Will Alabama key on Hardy? No doubt. Will it matter? Unlikely.
Tail this Alabama vs. Missouri player prop at BetMGM, where Hardy’s rushing projection is 3 yards lower than our other best college football betting sites. At -115 odds, the implied win probability is 53.49% and a $10 bet pays $8.70.
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⬇️ Jam Miller Under 67.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
After missing Alabama’s first three games, senior running back Jam Miller made his season debut two weeks ago against Georgia. He netted just 46 yards on 16 carries. Miller’s workload increased to 22 carries last week against Vanderbilt, and he erupted for 136 yards. Not bad, considering the Commodores surrender just 90.8 rush yards per game. That ranks 20th in FBS, which is 19 spots below Missouri.
The Tigers have allowed 312 total rushing yards through five games. Take out a fluke 84-yard TD by UL Monroe's Zylan Perry in Week 3, and that total plummets to 228 yards (45.6 per game). Obviously, competition matters, and Alabama is easily Missouri’s toughest foe to date. Still, I trust the Tigers' defense to stymie Miller for 60 minutes.
FanDuel’s -114 odds on this Alabama vs. Missouri player prop carry a 53.27% implied win probability. Risk $10 to win $8.77.
⬆️ Ty Simpson Over 1.5 passing TDs (-160) ⭐⭐⭐
Ordinarily, the juice on this Alabama vs. Missouri player prop would scare me off. As a matter of personal philosophy, I rarely recommend laying more than -150 on any wager. There are exceptions to every rule, though, and this is such an instance. Here’s why: If the Crimson Tide are going to win this game - and I believe they will - quarterback Ty Simpson once again will be the reason.
Simpson is averaging 295.6 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and just one interception. The Heisman Trophy odds favorite has multiple TD passes in every game. What about Missouri’s secondary? It has faced two decent quarterbacks so far: Kansas’ Jalon Daniels and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers. Both threw two TDs.
BetMGM’s -160 price leads the market and implies a win probability of 61.54%. Bet $10 to win $6.25.
📊 Alabama vs. Missouri odds today
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Missouri: Week 7
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Memorial Stadium (Columbia, Mo.)
- TV: ABC
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