Best Alabama vs. Georgia Player Prop Picks for Week 5: Ryan Williams Outlier Odds?
We’re looking forward to diving into our best Alabama vs. Georgia player props as our college football picks explore what could be the marquee matchup of the entire SEC season.
As part of my college football predictions for Week 5, I’ve identified Ryan Williams as an anytime TD scorer value relative to his projected probability to find the end zone in a matchup that the sportsbooks believe could see plenty of points (O/U 53.5). I also have prop predictions on fellow Alabama WR Germie Bernard and Georgia RB Nate Frazier.
The action kicks off from Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga., at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Georgia is a 3-point betting favorite, and our Alabama vs. Georgia prediction breaks down who will come out on top.
🏈 Alabama vs. Georgia player props
College football player prop bets for Week 5; odds subject to change.
- Ryan Williams anytime TD scorer (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Germie Bernard Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Nate Frazier Over 53.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📺️ How to watch Alabama vs. Georgia
When: Saturday, Sept. 27
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Sanford Stadium (Athens, Ga.)
TV: ABC
💰 Best Alabama vs. Georgia player prop picks
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🔥 Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama: anytime TD scorer (+160) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Though the Georgia defense isn’t any run-of-the-mill unit, Ryan Williams’ rate of touchdown scoring last season saw him find paydirt in more than half of his games (7-of-13, 53.8%). Williams didn’t score in Alabama’s ugly loss to Florida State, but found the end zone twice against Wisconsin.
So, Williams is scoring touchdowns in slightly more than half of his college games, but he’s seeing favorable +160 odds from bet365 to do so on Saturday. The implied probability at those odds is just 38.46%, below what we project for Williams’ anytime TD value in this matchup.
Williams famously hauled in 6 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown in last year’s Georgia game, and this Saturday’s game total (53.5) suggests plenty of scoring opportunities. A winning $10 wager on this prop would profit $16.00.
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⬆️ Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama: Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Germie Bernard has been a steady drumbeat for the Alabama passing game, recording receiving lines of 146, 64, and 62 yards across three games this season.
Unlike the last two games for Alabama, which were blowout wins in which Bernard had more modest production, today should see the Crimson Tide throwing the football throughout a competitive game to provide him ample opportunity to clear his receiving line.
Georgia allows 250.0 passing yards per game (95th in FBS), reinforcing that through the air is the preferred way to attack the Bulldogs. Bernard’s receiving line is listed at 64.5 yards from several sportsbooks, but at publish time, we’re showing an outlier line of 57.5 yards from BetMGM (-115). The implied probability at those odds is 53.49% and the profit on a winning $10 bet would be $8.70.
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⬆️ Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia: Over 53.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Nate Frazier carried the ball 14 times for 73 rushing yards in Georgia’s overtime win over Tennessee, and now gets an Alabama defense that ranks 55th in rushing yards allowed per game (138.3).
Against Florida State, Alabama surrendered 230 rushing yards. A Georgia offense that consolidates more of the rushing workload around Frazier should give its top back the chance to clear this line. Frazier has hit Over on this total in two of three games this season.
The line on Frazier’s rushing yards is 53.5 across our best sports betting sites, but the best odds come from FanDuel. The implied probability at those odds is 53.27%, while the profit on a winning $10 bet would be $8.77.
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📊 Alabama vs. Georgia odds
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
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