Alabama vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: College Football Week 1 Best Bets
Before settling on an Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, one must ask this question: Can you trust the Seminoles to immediately bounce back from a 2024 season that began with a top-10 ranking and ended with a 2-10 thud? That was the program’s worst record since 1974.
Oddsmakers have weighed in with their answer: Even though Saturday’s clash is on Florida State’s home turf at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC), Alabama is a consensus 14-point betting favorite.
That’s a ton of points in a battle of two marquee programs - but enough points for me to back the Seminoles with one of my college football picks? Read on for the answer, as well as a player prop involving a little-known running back. And don’t forget to check out all of our college football predictions for Week 1.
🏈 Alabama vs. Florida State expert picks & predictions
College football expert picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Alabama (-556 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Alabama -13.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 50.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Alabama vs. Florida State preview & best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐘 Alabama -13.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Alabama was hardly flawless in its first year post-Nick Saban, going 9-4 straight-up and 7-6 ATS (including 5-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite). But head coach Kalen DeBoer did continue one longstanding tradition that began under Saban: He opened the season with a convincing victory, a 63-0 blowout of Western Kentucky as a 34-point favorite.
It was the Crimson Tide’s 23rd consecutive season-opening win (a streak that pre-dates Saban’s tenure in Tuscaloosa). More impressively, Alabama improved to 15-2 ATS in Week 1 dating back to 2008 (including an ongoing 4-0 ATS streak). That’s not a trend I’m looking to fade, even if the point-spread value has gone Florida State’s direction.
Will the Seminoles be better in 2025? Well, they certainly can’t be worse. But with so much to fix, I doubt they’ll be ready for prime time right out of the gate. So I’m laying the 13.5 points with Alabama at BetMGM, which is offering that line at -115 odds. That pencils out to a 53.49% win probability, with a $10 wager potentially paying an $8.70 profit.
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💰 Best Alabama vs. Florida State player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Richard Young Over 57.5 rushing yards(-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Richard Young is actually second on the running back depth chart at Alabama, but he’s temporarily moved to the top spot while starter Jam Miller recovers from a dislocated collarbone suffered in a late preseason scrimmage. So Young will see the bulk of the backfield carries against Florida State.
It’s certainly a new role for the third-year sophomore, who had just 27 totes all last season. The good news is Young made the most of those limited opportunities, churning out 146 yards (5.4 yards per carry) - including a career-best 63 yards on just three carries against Missouri.
The better news: Young will be running behind a top-tier offensive line - and facing a Seminoles defense that last year ranked 111th (out of 134 teams) in stopping the run. If Young gets 15-20 carries, he should easily clear his rushing yards prop at Bet365, which has the optimum number at 57.5 yards. With -115 odds, the win probability on this player prop is 53.49% and a winning $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
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📊 Alabama vs. Florida State odds: Week 1
College football odds update live in real time.
📈 Alabama vs. Florida State betting odds analysis
Alabama was initially installed as a 12.5-point road favorite for Saturday’s opening game against Florida State. That hefty number hasn’t stopped bettors from rolling with the Crimson Tide, as the point spread is now out to 13.5 or 14 points, depending on the sportsbook.
Will there be some buyback on the host Seminoles as kickoff nears? Highly doubtful. So if you like Alabama, I recommend snatching up -13.5 now. If you believe in Florida State, stay patient and wait for this line to cross two touchdowns.
🔢 Alabama vs. Florida State stats (2024)
Season stats courtesy of sports-reference.com.
| Alabama (9-4) | Statistic (per game) | Florida State (2-10) |
|---|---|---|
| 33.8 | Points | 15.4 |
| 17.4 | Points allowed | 28.0 |
| +0.6 | Turnover margin | -1.3 |
| 236.4 | Passing yards | 180.3 |
| 173.8 | Rushing yards | 89.9 |
| 182.2 | Passing yards allowed | 201.3 |
| 137.8 | Rushing yards allowed | 184.7 |
| 1.6 | Net yards per play | -1.4 |
🚑 Alabama vs. Florida State injuries
📺 Alabama vs. Florida State game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 30
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
- How to watch: ABC
❓ Alabama vs. Florida State FAQs
Who is favored to win Alabama vs. Florida State?
The visiting Crimson Tide are favored to win the Alabama vs. Florida State nonconference clash by a comfortable margin, with the consensus point spread being 14 points.
What is the spread for Alabama vs. Florida State?
Alabama is a 13.5 to 14-point betting favorite against Florida State
What is the Over/Under for Alabama vs. Florida State?
The Over/Under for Alabama vs. Florida State is 50.5.
What are the best bets for Alabama vs. Florida State?
The best bets for Alabama vs. Florida State are the Crimson Tide -13.5 and Richard Young Over 57.5 rushing yards (-115).
When is the Alabama vs. Florida State game?
The Alabama vs. Florida State game is on Saturday, Aug. 30, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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