Alabama vs. Texas Picks, Predictions Week 2 College Football: Will Crimson Tide Cover as Huge Favorites?
Unsurprisingly, the Week 2 college football clash between No. 1 Alabama and Texas is one of the most highly-anticipated and most-bet games of the week. Let's look at our top Alabama-Texas picks.
Alabama (1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U) looked every bit the part of a deserving championship favorite during its season opener while obliterating Utah State 55-0. As many anticipated, Nick Saban's team is once again in a class of its own.
Meanwhile, Texas (1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U) also opened the season with a dominant victory over an overmatched Louisiana-Monroe outfit. The Longhorns remain on the outskirts of the AP Top 25 coming into this measuring-stick home game against the Tide.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 2 Alabama-Texas matchup (odds via PointsBet and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Alabama vs. Texas Game Info
Date: Saturday, Sept. 10, 12 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Weather: 85 degrees, 4.8% chance of precipitation, 4-5 mph winds blowing south
Alabama vs. Texas Odds Analysis
Right into Saturday morning, Alabama has received the lion's share of the support from bettors. The Crimson Tide have received 84% of all bets for 86% of the handle through the week. As such, the consensus spread has moved from Alabama -18.5 at open to -21.
Bettors are much more divided on the total. The Over/Under opened at 61.5 but with 71% of the bets on the Over the line has moved to 64.5. However, 59% of the cash being on the Under may suggest that's the sharp side of the total.
Alabama vs. Texas Picks
Alabama vs. Texas Predictions
Alabama -19.5 (-115) ★★★★
Sorry, Texas fans, but it’s going to be a tough watch on Saturday. Alabama is loaded to the gills on both sides of the ball. Trying to generate stops will be especially concerning for Texas against the Crimson Tide’s explosive offense.
Quarterback Bryce Young made quite an opening statement in his effort to repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner, throwing six touchdown passes during the team's opener. And anyone who had doubts about Alabama due to the changes on the wide receiver depth chart received a show from Traeshon Holden in Week 1 (five receptions for 70 yards and two touchdowns).
As for the Longhorns’ offense, transfer quarterback Quinn Ewers is about to encounter his toughest test of the season. And it's coming during the redshirt freshman’s second game under center.
Making matters worse for Texas offensively is a suspect offensive line that lacks much experience. Even Louisiana-Monroe was able to beat the Longhorns’ front for three sacks in Week 1. Pass protection could be nonexistent for Ewers against a much bigger, stronger, and faster Alabama defense.
If the Longhorns fail to establish a ground game with Bijan Robinson early, maintaining possession and staying competitive over a full four quarters will be borderline impossible. With many sportsbooks already moving the spread to 20-plus points, bettors are advised to take advantage of the lingering value at PointsBet.
Over 64.5 (-110) ★★★
Even those who are doubting Alabama due to its offensive skill-position changeover need to admit Texas will likely struggle to stop the Crimson Tide. The Longhorns boast talent in the defensive secondary, but they lack depth. A quarterback of Young’s caliber is more than capable of picking the unit apart if his receivers win their matchups and get separation.
Young also managed to lead the Crimson Tide in rushing with 100 yards in Week 1. Top running back Jahmyr Gibbs was only given nine total carries during the blowout of Utah State. Alabama’s offensive line sure had its way in the trenches, as Gibbs turned those nine touches into 93 rushing yards rushing (10.3 per carry).
Although Texas is expected to be better defensively than in 2021, it still needs to improve a lot against the run. It’s hard to bank on the Longhorns stopping Alabama’s rushing attack after they allowed over 200 rushing yards per game in 2021. Opponents averaged an incredible 5.1 yards per carry against Texas.
There are only two foreseeable scenarios for the Under to hit. One is Alabama’s pass-catchers failing to win against coverage. The other is Texas’ offense not generating much of anything against Will Anderson and the mighty 'Bama defense.
Assuming the Longhorns are good for at least 14-20 points, there's no reason to go against the line move in favor of the Over.
Alabama team total Over 41.5 (-118) ★★★★
For top-tier college football programs like Alabama, losing multiple key starters is hardly worth sweating over. There's so much talent in Saban’s program that the Crimson Tide are simply able to reload as opposed to rebuild.
The 2021 Alabama team overachieved relative to the experience on the roster. With the core pieces of the offense remaining intact, the next crop of skill-position players shouldn't struggle to fill the voids that NFL draftees Jameson Williams, John Metchie, and Brian Robinson leave behind.
This line is a full point lower through FanDuel than the current Crimson Tide's team total at DraftKings. However, the -118 price on the Over through FanDuel is still seven cents cheaper than DraftKings' -125 listing.
Meanwhile, PointsBet currently lists a -200 price on the Crimson Tide to score 40-plus points. FanDuel’s odds are essentially offering an 82-cent discount at the expense of just two points.
Where to Bet on Alabama-Texas Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Alabama-Texas picks made 9/8/2022 at 1:16 a.m. ET
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