Air Force vs. Navy Prediction: Opening Odds & Early Picks for College Football Week 6

The first game of the season between service academies for the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy takes place on Saturday afternoon, and we break down the matchup with our Air Force vs. Navy prediction. The opening odds have Navy lined as the 10-point betting favorite as it looks to stay undefeated, but my early picks are more interested in the total.

Kickoff from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md., set for noon ET (CBS). As part of our college football predictions for Week 6, my college football picks acknowledge the low-scoring history of games involving service academies, but call for a surprising shootout in this matchup.  

🏈 Early Air Force vs. Navy prediction & best bet

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football predictions for Week 6.

⬆️  Over 49.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Air Force and Navy would have to combine for 50-plus points for this Over to cash, something not done in any of the last five meetings in this rivalry, and just twice in the last 10. However, with Navy moving away from its more traditional flexbone triple-option attack into more spread looks, it has an explosive offense to get the job done.

Air Force and Hawaii just combined for 78 points and more than 1,000 yards of total offense last week. The two teams combined for 41 points in the fourth quarter alone, and the Falcons allowed the Rainbow Warriors to convert 14 of 19 third downs.

Since 2023, all three service academies have cashed the Over in more than 50% of their games. The Over is also a combined 7-1 in these two teams’ eight games. 

The line has come down quite a bit from its opening number, as bettors are well aware of the trend that Unders in service academy games are 51-12-3 (80.9%) since 2003. But I am bucking that trend given what I have seen out of both offenses (and defenses) so far this season. 

The best early number and price is at DraftKings, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a total as low as 49.5 with less than the standard -110 juice to back the Over. Its -108 odds carry a 51.92% implied probability, and would net $9.26 on a winning $10 wager.

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets + Over $200 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in OR/NH. 1 per customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Get promo code to redeem NFL Sunday Ticket sub and max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets; 7 day expiry.

Claim $400

📊 Air Force vs. Navy odds: Week 6

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📈 Air Force vs. Navy opening odds

• Moneyline: Air Force +310 | Navy -400
• Spread: Air Force +11.5 (-105) | Navy -11.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)

🔍 Air Force vs. Navy odds analysis

Most of our best sports betting apps have Navy squarely on the key number at -10, while a select few are a half-point higher at -10.5. The favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings between these teams, including in last year’s 34-7 Navy win when the Midshipmen were 9.5-point favorites. 

Because of that dominating win last year and with this game being at home, the spread should never dip below the key number of 10 all week.