Early 2028 Presidential Election Betting Markets Show Vance Ahead
The early betting odds for the 2028 US presidential election show a slight edge for Vice President JD Vance. The odds for Vance stand at +470, followed by Gavin Newsom, who trails at +494. Marco Rubio follows at +876 and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at +1702.
The best prediction markets track a similar pattern. On Polymarket, which has seen $498.1 million in trading volume, Vance sits at 18%, with Newsom at 17%. Rubio holds 10%, and Ocasio-Cortez is at 5%. For Kalshi, Vance appears to have somewhat widened the gap between Newsom; both sit at 18.6% and 15.1%, respectively. Rubio trails behind at 14.3%.
The tight numbers suggest that this area is still rather unsettled among bettors. While Vance holds the lead, it is a narrow one. Newsom is right behind, which means a change in perception could reverse positions. Rubio's appearance on the list indicates that his relevance remains within the party, despite Vance being ahead of him.
President Donald Trump still appears in some betting markets despite being term-limited. That inclusion reflects speculation rather than a realistic path. It also shows how market participants sometimes influence pricing alongside eligibility.
Polling adds another angle. Around 75% of Americans support a maximum age limit for presidential candidates. That sentiment has held across multiple surveys and could influence how future campaigns are framed. For now, the data shows a competitive early market with small gaps and no runaway leader.
Lawmakers move to curb prediction markets as scrutiny grows
The growing activity surrounding political events has started to draw a response in Washington. A group of congressional Democrats, including Jeff Merkley, Elizabeth Warren, and Jamie Raskin, introduced legislation to restrict betting on prediction markets across several categories.
Prediction markets have been facing growing scrutiny over alleged insider trading in recent months, prompting lawmakers to introduce new regulations. The proposed bill, titled the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, addresses wagers on elections, political processes, wars, and sports.
“When anyone can use prediction markets to make a well-timed bet on Congress passing a bill, government decisions, or a military strike, it’s ripe for corruption and erodes public trust,” Merkley said in a statement. “The STOP Corrupt Bets Act restores the original intent of prediction markets and prevents these markets from further eroding our democratic institutions and turning them into a casino.”
Other proposals wanting to regulate prediction markets are also moving simultaneously. Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced a bill focused on sports-related contracts, describing them as comparable to gambling but without the same oversight.
Alongside legislative pressure, both Kalshi and Polymarket recently introduced new safeguards against insider trading. Kalshi also stated it does not allow markets tied to war or death.
