Seahawks Bets Create Major Liability for Sportsbooks
The Seattle Seahawks carry the longest odds to win the NFC West and are underdogs to qualify for the playoffs. However, at least one Nevada bettor is backing the team to defy expectations.
MGM Resorts trading chief Lamarr Mitchell, as reported by the Las Vegas Review-Journal, said that a mystery bettor bet $50,000 at 28-1 on the Seahawks to win the NFC and would collect a $1.4 million payday, and another $50,000 was put down at 60-1 on their Super Bowl odds to collect $3 million.
That bet is this offseason's biggest Super Bowl liability reported in the United States to date, outdoing a $25,000 bet placed on DraftKings that would yield $2.5 million if Las Vegas covers at 100-1 odds.
Seattle, which finished 10-7 last season under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald, is also Circa Sports' biggest liability heading into the NFL season.
"We had a guy come in and bet mid-five figures on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, NFC, NFC West and to make the playoffs. Then he came back the next day and bet it again at different prices," said Mike Palm, VP of operations for Circa, D Las Vegas, and Golden Gate.
Palm said Seattle now represents the book's largest exposure in the NFL.
NFL extends betting policy to prediction markets
The heavy futures action on teams like the Seahawks comes at a time when the NFL is further clarifying its gambling policies for players, coaches, and staff. The league has told personnel that its existing prohibitions on betting through the best sports betting sites were also extended to prediction markets.
NFL VP and Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel explained during a media briefing that the league views these platforms as mimicking sports betting. Therefore, they fall under its prohibited conduct policy.
She added that the NFL is now educating staff on this restriction. In addition to league rules, federal regulations already prevent players and employees from trading such contracts, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates them.
The NFL and other professional leagues have previously raised concerns about prediction markets that operate outside the tightly controlled framework developed around legal sports betting.
Kalshi pushes ahead with football contracts
Despite league opposition, Kalshi has self-certified three new football-related contracts with the CFTC that closely resemble sportsbook wagers. The filings include markets for point spreads, totals, and touchdown scorers.
Kalshi said these offerings are designed to expand federally regulated trading opportunities for consumers, framing the products as providing the same protections as Wall Street markets.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the new contracts would bring more liquidity and price competition to a sports market worth an estimated $400 billion. The CFTC has three courses of action: reject the contracts outright, open a 90-day public interest review, or take no action, which would allow trading to proceed.
Under self-certification, these contracts can begin trading immediately unless the CFTC intervenes. Historically, the agency has never denied a self-certification in its 50-year existence.
