Polymarket's Predictions Take Center Stage at Golden Globes

Odds, published by prediction market operator Polymarket, were included in the live programming during the coverage of the Golden Globes on Sunday night. They appeared during breaks in award presentations and comedy bits with host Nikki Glaser.

On screen, live probabilities were displayed for several categories. This presented the outcomes of the awards as an entertainment market forecast, rather than mere predictions. The popularity of prediction markets was evident during the event as well. Over $2.5 million had been wagered on contracts across the 30 award show categories on the run-up to the event. 

The incorporation of betting odds throughout the show also highlighted the shift in the impact of financial contracts on mainstream media, with the award show seamlessly blending entertainment and prediction market apps.

One such featured segment was the Best Stand-Up Special award, where market information reflected Ricky Gervais as the obvious frontrunner. Gervais’s Netflix special Mortality took a substantial lead over other special programs, including those presented by Kumail Nanjiani and Brett Goldstein. This is consistent with the massive trading activity observed in Gervais’ favor prior to the award announcement.

This partnership between Polymarket and the Golden Globes was supported by broadcaster Paramount and served as a promotion of the use of predictive markets as a means of aggregating public opinion. 

Founder and CEO Shayne Coplan of Polymarket noted that the betting odds were determined in a peer-to-peer manner, telling Vanity Fair, “It's the world's largest prediction market. People are able to go and put money behind their opinions and as a result you get the odds of what's likely to happen.”

Polymarket faces backlash over Venezuela invasion bets

The prominence Polymarket gained from its Golden Globes exposure heightened scrutiny of the prediction platform among users after it refused to settle bets tied to the capture of then-President Nicolás Maduro by the US.  

In the days leading up to the seizure, traders had placed substantial wagers on the market, asking whether Maduro would be removed from power by late January 2026. One anonymous account deposited roughly $30,000 shortly before the operation, with projected profits exceeding $430,000 after news of Maduro's capture broke. 

However, Polymarket later ruled that the event did not meet the market's definition of an invasion, a key component of the market, triggering a sharp collapse in the associated odds. According to Polymarket's published rules, an invasion requires US military operations intended to establish control, rather than extract a target. It argued that a threat expressed through President Donald Trump's remarks about the future governance structure in Venezuela was insufficient, given the existing diplomatic engagement.

Following the clarification, the probability of an invasion before the end of January fell below 5%. More than $10.5 million has been wagered across Polymarket contracts tied to a Venezuela invasion timeline, with the majority of the volume concentrated on a January 31 deadline.