Polymarket's US Relaunch Faces Delay Due to Government Shutdown

Polymarket is unable to offer its prediction markets in the US while the federal government remains shut down, as a previous Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) precedent indicates that such activities would be paused until full operations resume. Historically, the CFTC stayed self-certifications of new markets during shutdowns, halting any pending launches. 

The most recent government shutdown began on Oct. 1.

CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham, however, had the authority and potentially the inclination to change that stance. Self-certification allows a designated contract market (DCM) to notify the CFTC of its intent to list a new type of market. If the commission does not intervene, the market may proceed, though it is not formally approved.

The last extended government shutdown lasted 35 days, from December 2018 to January 2019. Previous shutdowns included a three-day pause in 2018 and a 17-day halt in 2013. A commodities law expert noted that CFTC staff had typically paused self-certifications during these periods, but emphasized that no statute mandated such action.

Pham, who previously worked as a policy advisor to Commissioner Scott O'Malia during the 2013 shutdown, reportedly disagreed with the earlier decision to stay certifications. Now serving as the CFTC's sole commissioner, she had greater latitude to determine the regulator's course of action.

Polymarket's relaunch in the US depended on these filings. Its acquired exchange, QCEX, submitted self-certification requests for sports-related contracts to the CFTC on Oct. 1, but none had appeared on the public portal. The last self-certification or rules filing visible on the CFTC website dates back to late September, underscoring the regulator's operational halt.

Prediction markets enter mainstream

As Polymarket delays its US launch, prediction markets continue to gain traction in mainstream media, as exemplified by a South Park episode that investigated their growing popularity. 

The episode titled "Conflict of Interest" observed a prediction market app depicting social unrest between two of the show's main characters, Kyle and Cartman, reflecting broader discussions about the popularity of prediction markets among youth groups.

Crypto-themed platforms seized on the premiere of the episode. Traders on Myriad speculated about whether the show would mention real platforms like Polymarket, Myriad, or Kalshi.

Midweek trading during the episode revealed odds of less than 32%, with a bid of over $11,000 on the market. Polymarket also recorded high engagement, with wagers placed on how many times "prediction" or "predict" appear, quoting a likelihood of around 71%.

Beyond South Park, other bets involved mention of the Denver Broncos at 49%, Donald Trump at 45%, and a mention of a swear word at 55%. Although the blockchain correlations of these bookmakers showed odds of the show including "crypto" or "Bitcoin" to be low at 31%, they still garnered approximately $2,000 in total stakes.

Advertising teased that the episode would see South Park continue its recurring depiction of Donald Trump embroiled in a contentious storyline involving Satan, pursuing its commentary on political and media tensions.