March Madness Betting Expected to Reach $4 Billion

In a new report published by H2 Gambling Capital, March Madness is projected to generate $4 billion in wagers, a 6.7% rise from last year’s estimate of $3.7 billion.

Ziv Chen

Last Updated: March 13, 2026 9:12 AM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: Seton Hall guard David Gabriel after the win as we look at expected wagering on March Madness. Photo by Jess Stiles/Sipa USA

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The 2026 men's and women's national college basketball championships, also known as March Madness, are set to begin on March 17, with the first round scheduled for March 19, launching what is typically the most-wagered event on the US sports calendar. Data consultancy firm H2 Gambling Capital projects that March Madness betting will reach about $4 billion this year, a 6.7% increase from the previous tournament.

March Madness betting has expanded steadily as more states legalize wagering, which we track in our legal sports betting states tracker. H2 estimates that prediction markets will contribute roughly $135 million to $150 million in handle equivalent volume in states where regulated sportsbooks already operate.

Compared with the projected $4 billion wagered through licensed sportsbooks, including the best sports betting sites, that volume represents about 3.5% of total handle and less than 2% of overall gross gaming revenue.

Sportsbook profitability during the tournament depends heavily on hold margin performance. College basketball betting typically produces lower hold rates than professional leagues.

Another smaller portion is from same-game parlays since college players are not as popular and therefore do not have many popular player props. This means tournament outcomes have a greater impact on operator margins, especially when underdogs win, and multi-game parlays lose.

H2 estimates sportsbooks will record a 7% hold rate during the 2026 tournament, compared with 6.1% last year. The lower margin in 2025 followed an uncommon scenario in which all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four.

If the projected hold rate maintains alongside the anticipated handle, sportsbooks could generate about $279 million in gross gaming revenue, representing a 23.1% year-on-year increase.

Recent wagering trends also support expectations for stronger margins. Sportsbooks reported improved results during the most recent NFL season, with average hold rates across US markets reaching 10.8% in the fourth quarter, up from 8.1% the year before.

NCAA challenges use of March Madness branding by prediction markets

The rise of prediction market apps has added another layer to the college basketball betting landscape. While the NCAA remains opposed to such markets, trading activity on platforms like Kalshi has increased sharply ahead of the tournament.

Kalshi has previously stated that it received $2.27 billion in contracts on men's college basketball games traded in February. That was much greater than the $1.8 billion traded on NFL contracts during the same month and the $1.74 billion recorded for NBA games.

The growth in trading has also sparked disputes over branding and affiliation.

Despite the NCAA's calls for its removal, Kalshi continues to host a page referencing March Madness prediction markets. The NCAA stated that the phrase is intellectual property and that Kalshi's use of it could be misinterpreted as an official endorsement of the operator.

Kalshi rival Polymarket also references the trademarked name on its international site, while its US app avoids using either phrase. The NCAA has said it will also request that the operator stop using the terminology.

Written by:
Ziv Chen

Ziv has over two decades of experience in the igaming and sports betting industry, having served in senior marketing and business development positions with both B2C and B2B companies, including Playtech and Microgaming. In 2019, Ziv decided to pursue his passion for writing and became a fulltime industry journalist, covering casino, sports, and gambling business news. He’s specialties include casino games and technology, US state gambling regulation, company performance, as well as gambling affiliates and marketing. As a Pitt graduate, Ziv is a diehard fan of all Pittsburgh sports teams, with the Steelers at the top of the list. In his free time, he enjoys reading crime fiction, biographies (mainly of sports personalities, but not only) and American history. Ziv’s Favorite quote: “We're going to pursue perfection, knowing full well we won't catch it, but we're going to relentlessly chase it," Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach.