Kalshi Pricing Model Outperforms Sportsbooks During March Madness

Kalshi posted the most competitive pricing across the 2026 March Madness tournament, based on an industry review published by Citizens.

The analysis covered operators DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and Kalshi, using moneyline and totals markets across game days.  

Total legal betting handle reached about $3 billion, slightly below last year's figure but still roughly twice the Super Bowl. That prior comparison came with noise, as heavy-favorite wins in 2025 inflated betting recycles. 

Early rounds did not fully tilt toward prediction market apps. DraftKings led pricing across the First Four, though that edge faded quickly. From there, Kalshi controlled most of the board, posting the best pricing in 41 games. DraftKings followed with 17, while FanDuel and Fanatics recorded five and four games, respectively. The gap widened deeper into the bracket, where tighter spreads matter more to experienced bettors. 

Margin data tracked that shift. Kalshi recorded a 4.12% implied margin in the finals and 4.50% in the Final Four. DraftKings landed just behind at 4.52% in the championship round, with FanDuel and Fanatics slightly higher.  

Across the full tournament sample, Kalshi averaged 4.13%, the lowest among all operators measured. The difference was not dramatic on a single wager, but it was consistent over time. 

The structure explains most of it. Kalshi uses transaction-based fees rather than embedding margin into odds. Fees averaged $1.75 per 100 contracts in the Final Four and $1.56 in the finals. Liquidity providers, especially high-volume traders, often pay less. That setup favors participants who understand price movement and execution timing. 

Nevertheless, the framework does not entirely alter the behavioral pattern. There are fixed transaction costs for retail gamblers, but the best sports betting sites allow for more betting options and an easy-to-use interface. Most bettors would opt to take slightly unfavorable odds in exchange for ease. 

Live betting trends added another wrinkle. Kalshi reported 73% of total tournament volume coming from in-game markets, rising to 64% during the Final Four. Traditional sportsbooks typically sit closer to 55% to 60%.  

Billion Dollar Bracket extends Kalshi's reach 

That pricing narrative carried into Kalshi's broader push around the tournament. The company ran its Billion Dollar Bracket contest alongside March Madness, combining a headline prize with a charitable component.  

The promotion offered $1 billion to any entrant who correctly picked every game, with a fallback $1 million prize for the highest score if no perfect bracket emerged. 

Entries were capped at 10 million, and submissions closed on March 19 before the first round. The structure leaned into long-shot probability rather than realistic outcomes. By March 22, no perfect bracket had been recorded, which aligned with historical expectations given the mathematical difficulty. 

The campaign also directed $1 million in charitable funding split between iMentor and the Starting Five foundation, led by Devin Booker. iMentor focuses on college and career mentorship programs, while Starting Five has distributed $100,000 grants to Arizona-based youth and family initiatives.