David Haye Bestows Betting Wisdom on Paul-Joshua Fight
Former world heavyweight champion David Haye offered a provocative assessment of the upcoming Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua bout, arguing that the unconventional nature of the matchup could create scenarios where Paul could benefit despite being a heavy underdog.
The sanctioned fight is scheduled for Dec. 19 at the Kaseya Center in Miami.
The bout was finalized after Paul's planned November fight with Gervonta Davis collapsed following fresh domestic abuse allegations involving the WBA lightweight champion. With that contest canceled, Paul shifted his focus to Joshua, a far more established figure in professional boxing but one returning from an extended absence.
Most analysts frame the fight as heavily one-sided, citing Joshua's experience, size, and elite pedigree. However, Paul publicly rejected the idea that the contest would end quickly, stating he doesn't expect to be stopped and instead projects a mid-fight victory.
Haye acknowledged Joshua's status as the clear favorite but explained that traditional betting markets offered little value due to the odds. He proposed that an alternative result, such as a no-contest, tie, or technical decision, could offer a positive outcome for Paul. Haye also cautioned fans not to risk large sums but to make smaller wagers, given the bout's unpredictable nature.
“If I’m a betting man, it’s not really worth betting on Anthony Joshua because he’s such a heavy favourite,” Haye told iFL TV. “I’d bet on Jake Paul to win for a no contest, draw, technical draw or something crazy to happen. I bet Jake Paul finds a way to win or get a draw because you’ll get 10-1 odds.”
Bettors split as Paul draws strong wagering interest
Although many in the boxing world expect a dominant performance from Joshua, betting trends suggest a more mixed sentiment ahead of the upcoming event. A lot of betting money has been placed on Jake Paul, despite moving up in a way that will see him face the most accomplished opponent of his career.
As a result, Paul had established a record over the course of five years since turning pro by battling other UFC competitors, a majority of whom were well past their prime. Wins over Tyron Woodley, Ben Askren, Nate Diaz, and Anderson Silva established him as a mixed martial artist with a broad appeal.
The only professional loss in his record dates back to a split decision loss to Tommy Fury two years prior in Saudi Arabia. Paul had some light experience in heavyweight bouts, beating Mike Tyson in November 2024. The victory gave him a boost in confidence before the Joshua match despite being met with doubts over whether he had a chance against a superior heavyweight boxing champion.
Despite predictions of an early Joshua victory, betting data showed Paul receiving the highest share of wagers. Around 50% of bets have been placed on Paul, compared to 34% on Joshua, with 16% backing a draw.
As of Dec. 15, DraftKings listed Joshua as a -1200 favorite and Paul at +700. FanDuel posted similar odds, pricing Joshua at -1300 and Paul at +700 again.
