DraftKings Targets Growing Prediction Market Sector

The Boston-based company says that it will integrate its standalone predictions platform directly into its primary app.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins speaks to reporters as we look at the company's plans for prediction markets.
Pictured: DraftKings CEO Jason Robins speaks to reporters as we look at the company's plans for prediction markets. Photo by REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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Sportsbook operator DraftKings is aiming to become a major player in the new prediction markets sector, using the same strategy that helped it establish a dominant position in the US sports betting world. 

The Boston-based company says that it will integrate its standalone predictions platform, DraftKings Predictions, which launched in December, directly into its primary app, rebranding it as DraftKings Sports & Casino. By removing the word ‘sportsbook’, the company says it will reflect the legal distinction between traditional gambling and prediction markets, which are regulated differently. 

According to DraftKings' Chief Executive, Jason Robins, the goal is to make the predictions product feel the same as the sports-betting interface. In the 17 states where DraftKings is not licensed as a sportsbook operator, users will still be able to access prediction markets through the app, which lets customers trade on the outcomes of events.

Robins added that prediction market apps could be a $10 billion revenue opportunity, with sports-related contracts expected to drive most of the activity. Because prediction markets are not subject to state gambling taxes, DraftKings expects margins to be up to 30% higher than traditional sports betting. 

DraftKings is racing to catch up with prediction market operator rival Kalshi, widely viewed as the current leader in the space. He added that he sees DraftKings as “less than a year behind” the operator and ahead of other competitors in the market. 

Robins also noted plans to have a fully integrated app ready before the next NFL season, although investors have expressed impatience as the company’s stock has continued to slip. 

FanDuel and DraftKings dominate early Missouri market

DraftKings is also a key player in the new Missouri sports betting sector, where, along with rival FanDuel, it is already seeing strong returns from legalized sports wagering.

According to data from the state regulator, the Missouri Gaming Commission, the two companies accounted for 73% of the $928 million wagered in the first two months after sports betting launched on December 1, and 77% of the $157.7 million in net winnings. 

Despite winning a combined $120 million, neither company has yet paid state taxes on those profits. Missouri’s 2024 constitutional amendment allows operators to deduct promotional spending, federal taxes, and other business costs from taxable revenue, which means DraftKings and FanDuel have offset their winnings entirely, carrying forward millions in write-offs.

Missouri taxes sports wagering revenue at 10%, but the state has collected just $659,196 in the first two months after the sector launched, or less than 0.5% of operator winnings.

During the 2024 campaign to legalize sports betting, DraftKings and FanDuel each contributed $20 million to the $43 million ballot effort, with major Missouri sports teams providing additional support, but the minimal level of taxation paid so far has caused some concern among lawmakers who supported legalization as a way to generate extra revenue for public services.