Churchill Downs Opposes Prediction Markets as US Racing Handle Falls

Churchill Downs (CDI) and senior horse racing figures have intensified opposition to prediction market platforms that take wagers on races, citing federal protections and concerns about lost revenue, as overall US wagering declined to $11.03 billion in 2025, the lowest total since 2020. 

Speaking during a Feb. 26 earnings call, CDI CEO Bill Carstanjen said the company doesn't support prediction market apps offering contracts on horse racing outcomes. He said pari-mutuel wagering directly funds racetracks and purses, unlike other sports, which do not receive a direct financial benefit from sports betting activity.

Carstanjen added that horse racing operates under a distinct legal framework governed by the Interstate Horseracing Act, describing it as a federal umbrella statute granting rights over racing content. He said any entity seeking to take wagers on races across platforms, including the best horse racing betting sites, advance-deposit wagering services, or prediction markets, must obtain express consent.

CDI owns racetracks and the advance-deposit wagering platform TwinSpires.com. The company offers future wagers on the Kentucky Derby, with proceeds supporting purses and tracks. Carstanjen asserted that the company had not licensed its content to prediction markets and did not intend to do so, citing satisfaction with its existing distribution arrangements. 

Tom Chignell, a consultant for the Hong Kong Jockey Club, previously noted that one prediction market site handled $1.2 million in wagers on the 2025 Triple Crown races. At the same time, National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association Chief Executive Eric Hamelback said prediction market operators had not sought revenue-sharing agreements with any horsemen or racetracks.

Wagering and purses decline

The dispute over distribution rights comes as US thoroughbred wagering continues to decrease. Equibase data showed total handle fell 2.1% year-on-year to $11 billion in 2025, marking the sixth decline in seven years and standing 27.3% below the 2003 peak of $15.2 billion.

December 2025 wagering dropped 7.3%. Race days declined 5.2% from 3,787 to 3,590, while total races fell 4.7% to 29,401. Despite fewer events, average wagering per race day rose 3.3% to $3.1 million, and average field size edged up to 7.47 starters.

Purses slipped 2.4% to $1.28 billion after reaching a record $1.31 billion in 2024. The decline marked the first reduction since 2020.

The wider gambling market has undergone a significant shift since the 2018 PASPA ruling legalized sports betting. The legal sports betting handle in the US increased from $4.9 billion in 2017 to $150 billion in 2025. In the same period, US racing handle increased by only 1.2%.

The state of funding is still linked to casino and historical horse racing products in some states. The disentanglement of casino gaming and live racing in Florida is still a process and is causing uncertainty for racing venues such as Gulfstream Park.